Hail in Kentucky, May 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT WED MAY 01 2002

LOT OF THINGS TO THINK ABOUT. CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND POPS AND
SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY
THAT HAD MADE IT DOWN INTO THE CWA FROM THE N LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED
UP ALONG THE OH RIVER. THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR S THIS MORNING
HAS SURGED N AND IS NOW LOCATED FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS
RIVERS TO JUST N OF LOZ AND OVER INTO SE NC. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO FIRE JUST N OF THE FRONT NEAR NOSE OF 850 JET. MORE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT WITH
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE BOUNDARY ON STRENGTHENING LLJ. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT OF HVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY GETS. THEY WILL
BE CLOSEST TO SFC LOW TRACK AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE BEST
THERE. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT TOMORROW OF SVR WX AND
LOCALLY HVY RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE SFC COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO
MENTION RAIN HEAVY BOTH LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS PWS PEAK
NEAR 1.5. STORMS WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE MORE LOCALIZED.

FEEL THAT THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE MORE AS SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
ENHANCE DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TO OUR N...GIVING AN
ENHANCED HVY RAIN THREAT ALONG AND N OF THE OH RIVER. WITH THE
FAIRLY STRONG LOW...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL MENTION BREEZY LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE AVN
SPEED SEEMED A BIT FAST AND HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO IT. SOMETHING MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ETA LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO REALITY.

HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
N. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE CHANCE S AND SLIGHT CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT. AS
FRONT STALLS TO OUR S...PM MCS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SW APPEARS
REASONABLE WITH IT TRAVERSING INTO TN AND SKIRTING OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

EXTENDED...RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH HIGH
HEIGHTS AND 8H TEMPS IN THE +14 TO 16 C RANGE...HAVE GONE ABOVE MEX
NUMBERS FOR TUE AND WED. FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE N WILL BRING
AN ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCE ON MON. WITH SEVERAL HARD TO TIME
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY PARTICULARLY
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE OH VALLEY.

WORK ZONES WILL BE OUT AS SDFOZFJKL BEFORE TOO LONG.

.JKL...SPS FOR ALL ZONES FOR THREAT OF SVR WX AND HVY RAIN.

PELTON