Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, August 12 to 13, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

UPDATE FOR MEDIA... SPC PLANS TO ISSUE A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH TO REPLACE EXIPIRING TORNADO WATCH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AREA
COVERED WILL BE SIMILAR EXCEPT THAT IT WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OKCSLSOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

32

--------------------------------------
800 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE TSTMS SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY TO SEE STORMS THIS EVENING
AS SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP A MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. UPDATED FORECASTS TO
REFLECT TIMING OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT. ALSO BUMPED WINDS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WEST.

32
--------------------------------------
323 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2002

FNTL BNDRY REMAINS JUST TO THE NW OF THE FA THIS AFTN. STG SLY LO
LVL FLO IS RETURNING HIGH DEWPOINT AIR NWD INTO WRN OK AS AMS
RECOVERS FROM OVERNIGHT TSTM COMPLEX. LOOKS LIKE BEST AREA FOR
INITIATION LATE THIS AFTN WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FA
WHERE CDFNT AND WHATS LEFT OF OUTFLOW BNDRY INTERSECT. AS PER SPC
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS IS GOOD IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH MORE OF A WIND/HAIL THREAT EXPECTED LATER. EXPECT
FNT TO SAG SWD OVERNIGHT WITH TSTM DVLPMENT AIDED BY S/W MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND DECENT LLJ. FNTL BNDRY WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO THE
FA ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS. DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHERE FNT WILL BE BY TUESDAY AS OUTFLOW FROM STORMS MAY
PUSH THE EFFECTIVE BNDRY FRTHR S THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.
PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL UPR TROF FINALLY
SWINGS E OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME PRECIP AROUND...TMPS TUESDAY SHUD BE
SIG COOLER IN ALL BUT THE SE WHERE LATER FNTL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME WARMUP. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS UPR TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. LTL CHANGE TO EXTENDED
FCST.

FCSTID =2
OKC   68  81  61  86 /  40  50  20  10
HBR   68  84  60  88 /  40  50  20  10
SPS   72  88  64  89 /  20  40  40  10
GAG   62  74  53  87 /  60  60   0  10
PNC   67  77  59  86 /  60  60  10  10
DUA   73  87  65  88 /  20  40  60  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.