Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, August 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2002

MDLS INDICATE HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID/LOW LVL MSTR TO AID IN AFTN
CONVECTION ACRS CWA.  ATTM SAT PIT SHOWS LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS ACRS
LG PTN OF THE STATE FROM TSTMS LAST EVG TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.  MDLS
SHOW WK FORCING TDA AND WITH MSTR WL KP TSTM CHANCES IN FOR THE
DAY.  BLV BEST CHCS WL BE FROM MFD/MNN ENE THRU CAK AND YNG AREAS SO
WL BOOST FROM 40 TO 50% THERE.  GVN THE SEASON OVC SHOULD BREAK SO
WL GO WITH PC.  FOR TNGT NO BIG CHGS ALTHOUGH WL GO WITH PC AGAIN
SINCE FOCUS OF LIFT WL BE TO OUR WEST WITH THE ACPHG CDFNT.  CWA
SHOULD BE IN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE.  FOR TUES...CDFNT NEARING BUT
SLOWING.  STILL WL INCR TSTM CHCS TO 50% AREA WIDE GVN GOOD MOIST
850MB SWLY INFLOW.  HAVE BACKED OFF CLOUDY WORDING IN FAVOR OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY.  DOESNT SEEM LIKE MUCH BUT MC ALLOWS FOR BKN SS
WHICH I THINK WE CAN GET FROM TIME TO TIME.  AND...SINCE WL RMN IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHD OF CDFNT THRU THE DAY...IT COULD END UP BEING
MORE THAN THAT.  GVN PROXIMITY OF BNDRY TUES NIGHT AND GVN AVN PROGS
OF MSTR...ETC...HARD TO HOLD OFF LIKLY POPS AT LEAST WEST SO WILL GO
WITH A 60% THERE.  CHC POPS ELSEWHERE UNTIL WED WHERE LKLY SEEMS
REASONABLE.  FOR EXTENDED...WILL BACK OFF POPS ON FRI GVN LOOK AT
MRF/AVN RH PROGS...BUT DVLPG TROF TO OUR WEST CREATES A PTTN THAT
SHOULD INCR MSTR/INSTBY FOR SAT AND SUN SO WL ADD CHC POPS THERE.
NEW MRF ALSO BACKS THIS UP...SPCLY FOR SAT.

MISCLE IS OUT.

.CLE...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

TK