Hail in North Carolina, May 7, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 7 2002

OVERALL WEATHER PICTURE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF/SE & MCS ACTIVITY JUST TO OUR NORTH IN THE SHORT
TERM... A FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NIGHT/FRI AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
CROSSES ONT/QUE... THEN A REAMPLIFICATION OF GULF/SE RIDGING OVER
THE WEEKEND.

TNGT: SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE NRN CWA LATE
TONIGHT... PROPELLED BY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTH. LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN CWA IN A WEAKENED
STATE AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB PARTICULARLY TO
OUR SW. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYING MCSS TO BRUSH
ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE NC TONIGHT & WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS HERE WITH
NO POPS FARTHER SOUTH.

WED/WED NGT: OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS THE ETA HAS BROUGHT THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA EARLY WED BUT WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS
QPF. UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SHOWN IN THE MODELS BY
LOWERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... SO INSTABILITY TOMORROW SHOULD BE
LIMITED. WHILE PW VALUES GO UP A BIT DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HEADS BACK NE... WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID 60S WED NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THU: PARTLY CLOUDY & QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. CAPES BRIEFLY SURPASS
1000 J/KG... BUT THE DEGREE OF WARMTH ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL ONCE AGAIN CUT BACK ON CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
FOR NOW & LET LATER SHIFTS ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IF NEEDED.

THU NIGHT/FRI: BEST SHOT AT ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THU NIGHT
EVERYWHERE AND FRI IN THE SE CWA... AND EVEN THAT PROBABILITY IS NOT
VERY HIGH WITH MID LEVEL WINDS GOING WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
RETAIN CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT--LOWEST NE / HIGHEST SW CWA--AND FRI IN
THE SE CWA.

SAT-TUE: HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SAT/SUN LEADING TO A COOLDOWN
WITH FAIR SKIES. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS A
POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER LATE SUN WITH A RETURN TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
READINGS TO START THE WEEK. MRF PHASES NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY... WHICH BRINGS A
FRONT LATE MON... BUT AGAIN WITH WINDS GOING WEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... THINK THE RISK OF SHOWERS IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME... BUT WILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR LATE MON-TUE.

.RAH...NONE.

HARTFIELD