Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kansas, May 7 to 8, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
155 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

FCST FOCUS ON CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALONG WITH
TEMPS.

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED SFC LOW ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE.
GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEB...AND
THIS IS AIDING IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
WHICH IS NOW FROM NEAR RSL TO SLN WHERE CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION
IS OCCURRING. THE DRYLINE REMAINS STATIONARY FROM JUST EAST OF DDC
THROUGH WESTERN OK. AN INTERESTING PROCESS OF WAA/THETAE ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 800-700MB LAYER CONTINUES TO RELEASE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  MEANWHILE...A
DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF PARSONS TO NEAR
WINFIELD. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER SPEED
MAX ACROSS WEST TX  WITH A STRONGER UPPER VORT CENTER ACROSS AZ.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THETAE
AXIS TO PERSIST DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SFC BASED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BETWEEN DDC AND PRATT NEAR THE
DRYLINE AFTER 4 PM. ANOTHER AREA OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT IS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT FROM RSL TO SALINA. GREATEST RISK OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE SUNSHINE WILL AID
IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL...THE WAVE ACROSS AZ COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER
JET DIV AND AMOUNT OF CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES
SINCE ONLY A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS
RECENTLY...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDS...STRONG UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. DRY ADVECTION MAY INHIBIT LATE
DAY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...HOWEVER SE KS
SHOULD REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SO WILL KEEP HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS HERE. WILL KEEP GOING TEMPS.  BEST CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTRMS
APPEAR TO BE WEDS NIGHT EAST OF THE TURNPIKE SO HIGHEST POPS HERE.

QUIET AND COOLER WX STILL LOOKS ON TAP THU/FRI...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST
WILL BE TO LOWER MIN TEMPS MON/TUES.

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-080500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A BETTER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
5 PM INTO TONIGHT.

A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S...
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...FROM 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS
EVENING.

IN ADDITION...AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM THE FLINT HILLS...INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...IF SUFFICIENT
SUNSINE AND HEATING CAN OCCUR.

WIND SHEAR PROFILES AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORT ROTATING
SUPERCELLS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES. THE AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...IS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135 FROM SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON.

UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THEREFORE...SCATTERED STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY ORGANIZE AND EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED
AFTER 5 PM...WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

CARUSO