Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2002

.SHORT TERM...
ASSERTIVE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL VA THIS AFTN.
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS E TN/KY AND SW VA DEVELOPING IN W UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT OUR NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. FEEL THAT
ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS APPROACHES MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN NC. WILL PLAN ON 50 POPS NW AND 30 POPS SE FOR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PLOW COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH NC TONIGHT AND INTO
GA/SC AREA. STILL FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BUT IT IS
HARD TO ARGUE WITH FRONTAL MOTION TODAY. EXPECT COOLER AIR TO EASILY
REACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA EARLY MONDAY WITH LESS COOLING ACROSS
THE SOUTH. HIGHS 85 TO 90 NORTH AND NEAR 90 SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTH BUT RIDGING OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP IT TO A
MINIMUM.

RETURN TO VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. THREAT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION INCREASES AS WELL. -JB

.EXTENDED...
CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF STALL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER BAJA,
WITH A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. GFS/AVN LONER WITH CLOSED 500H ANOMALY LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS.  WILL DISCARD GFS AND GO WITH THE MAJORITY. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE WEEK WILL OCCUR AS CWA CATCHES TAIL END OF
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FROPA ANYWHERE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING (EARLIEST) TO FRIDAY (LATEST, AND MOST PROBABLE
GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TENDENCY TO SLOW FRONTS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR).  COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DEAMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WILL THAT IN MIND WILL HAVE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.  FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH CLIMATOLOGY PREFERRED.  -CBL

.RDU...NONE.

BLAES/CBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    ASHEBORO                  NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/01/02   RANDOLPH                       SEVERAL TREES AND POWER
                                          LINES DOWN. ALSO NUMEROUS
                                          TREES DOWN OUTSIDE THE CITY
                                          LIMITS

RA