Flash Flooding and Flood in Kentucky, June 2 to 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

ON IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR ERN PTNS OF FA UNTIL
8 PM EDT TONIGHT. NW TO SE TROF LINE ACRNS ERN PTN OF FA...AND
IS THE FOCUS POINT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE:
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF
TSTMS IN FA THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER TODAY...TROF/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACRS NERN THIRD OF FA WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE. DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK LENDS SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO TOO. EVEN WITH HIGH RH AND
IMPRESIVELY LOW LIS...CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS TO SURPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WILL GO WI 20 PERCENT POPS MON
AND TUE.

NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID WEEK...A MAJOR TROF WILL USHER IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
COOLER AIR. NEW MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SDF...NONE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030100-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS FORECASTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ALONG THIS FRONT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AS
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, STRONG INSTABILITY, AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE VALUES COALESCE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PROFILE WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SHORT-LIVED PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SOUTH OF THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS
CAP, OR LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT, MAY ACT TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, EVEN WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS, AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES. AT THIS TIME,
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SMALLCOMB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-030100-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
220 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS FORECASTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALONG THIS FRONT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, STRONG INSTABILITY, AND
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES COALESCE. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WOULD TEND TO FAVOR SHORT-LIVED
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER IF ENOUGH THUNDERSTORMS FORM THEY
MAY BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AND PERSIST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

SOUTH OF THIS FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS CAP, OR LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT, MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, EVEN WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS, AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES. AT THIS TIME,
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SMALLCOMB