Wildfire in Colorado, June 2 to 10, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
1208 PM MDT SUN JUN 2 2002

...ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS...

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SHRA/TSTM POTENTIAL LATE MON AFTN-MON NGT AND TUE.
TUE TSTMS ARE KIND OF QUESTIONABLE FOR SOME PARTS OF CWFA(SERN CO) AS
AIR MASS MAY BE TOO DEEPLY STABLE. HOWEVER...WELL NEED WETTING
PRECIPITATION EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR TUE. NO DROUGHT-BUSTER...BUT
WELL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.  ALSO...COOLER TEMPS IN THE OFFFING FOR
TUE CWFA-WIDE.

CURRENTLY: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED
LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...IN WRN US.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  FAIRLY
DEEP W-SWLY FLOW(15-25KTS) OVER CNTRL ROCKIES.  CU/TCU HAVE BEEN
LIMITED WHICH IS DIFFERENT IN PAST DAYS AND PRETTY MUCH NAILED BY
THE MODELS.  ONLY CLOUD COVER...SO FAR...HAS BEEN A LINGERING CS MTN
WAVE CLOUD WITH SPOTTY CU/TCU IN THE EXTREME SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS.  SFC DRYLINE HAS MIGRATED QUICKLY EWD AS THE ERN CO BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS.  STILL A LITTLE SECONDARY DRYLINE HANGING AROUND
KSPD IN BACA CO.  SFC TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE 90S TO 100-102F IN
SERN CO.

TNGT: MM5 HINTING AT ISOLD DRY TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
IN FAR SERN CO NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY DRYLINE. CERTAINLY
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLD WORDING IN FAR SERN CO AND
REMOVE MENTION ELSEWHERE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS VERY LOW GRADE TOO
DRY.  WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SOME WINDS IN THE FCST FOR THIS
EVE.  CLOUD-WISE...MAY SE A CHUNK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIGRATING
THROUGH THE CWFA LATE TNGT FROM THE W.  MORE TRICKY LOW TEMP FCST
IN A DRY CLIMATE.  LOWER TROP WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A STRONG AS LAST
NGT...SO WOULD SUSPECT A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NGT ONCE THE
SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AND TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE WINDS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

MON-MON NGT: PROJECTED ARRIVAL OF SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE
GETTING SLOWER AND SLOWER WITH EACH MODEL RUN.  MESO-ETA NOW HAS
THE FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS SERN CO MTNS/PLANS MON NGT.  MANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS RELY ON WHERE THIS FRONT WILL ACTUALLY LIE ON MON-
MON NGT.  WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MESO-ETA...SO WILL HAVE TO CONITUE
TWEAKING THE MAX TEMP UP IN SERN CO.  ETA MOS HAS KLAA GETTING CLOSE
TO 100F.  FRONT SHOULD OOZE INTO NERN/E CNTRL CO WITH PRETTY JUICY
DEW POINTS(45F-61F) POOLING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT.  AROUND THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE THE FIRST INITIATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HEADING TOWARDS SERN CO COULD BE ADDITIONAL
FOCI.  DURING MON AFTN/EVE...THERMAL PROFILES IN SERN/S CNTRL CO ARE
STILL SUGGESTING PRETTY HIGH BASED TSTMS WITH MAYBE ONLY A
STG/DAMAGING WIND EVENT.  ANY HAIL WOULD HAVE TO START OUT FAIRLY
LARGE FOR IT TO SURVIVE THE HOT/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.  CAPE VALUES
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN NERN CO/NWRN KS WHERE THE BETTER FUEL AND
SHEAR ARE LOCATED.  WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN SERN CO AND DECREASE WWD.

ON MON NGT...MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT THE
FRONT IS NOW PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL MCS ACROSS ERN CO/NRN KS/WRN NE WHICH WILL
LIKELY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER S THAN THE MESO-ETA IS
SUGGESTING. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR TUES SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH A SEVERE.

TUE-TUE NGT: SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FCST WELL S OF THE CWFA
IN NM AND SRN PLAINS.  RELATIVELY COOL(H7 TEMPS +2 SERN CO TO +10
SWRN CO) FORECAST FOR CWFA ON TUE.  PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND TYPE
ARE TRICKY. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN WRN KS AND
NM/SRN PLAINS. GENERALLY...ALONG AND W OF THE SERN CO MTNS IS WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE(H7-H5 LR 8-9 C/KM) AIR MASSS RESIDE.  IN SERN CO...
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE 5-6 C/KM WHICH DOESNT BODE WELL FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY...TOO.  IF LOW BKN-
OVC SC DEVELOPS...COULD SHUTDOWN ANY CONVECTION HOPES AND KEEP TUE
COOL WITH SOME SHRA.  WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS(50%) ALONG THE SERN
CO MTNS/PLAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE IN SERN/S CNTRL CO.
SAME POP PLAN FOR TUE EVE.

THE BIGGEST NOTICABLE CHANGE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS...SOME 25-35
DEGREES COOLER FOR TUES MAX TEMPS.  WHICH ALSO SPELLS HIGHER
HUMDITY LEVELS.

WED: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER ETA
EXTENSION.  ETA TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME MTN SHRA/TSTM. INTERESTING
THAT THE OVERLY WET AVN DOESNT HAVE ANY QPF IN CO.  TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER ON WED...BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL. PLAN TO TWEAK TEMPS UP
FROM TUES HIGHS AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THE MTNS IN THE AFTN/EVE.

THU-SUN: UPPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OUT WEST AND TOWARDS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES THU-FRI WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDTIONS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE AVN.  GFS TRYING TO BRING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SAT-SUN...WHICH COULD HEAT TEMPS UP SAT AND THEN
COOL THEM DOWN ON SUN.  SINCE THIS IS DAY 6-7...PLAN TO KEEP A
PERSISTENT FCST FOR DAY 7 WITH DAY 6.

.PUB...NONE.

METZE