Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

LOOKS LIKE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OF THE PAST 4 DAYS IS ABOUT OVER WITH
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO ESTRN NC.
FCST 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 17C AS OPPOSED TO 20C AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT REGIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKS HEAT HAS BROKEN DOWN AND
ESTRN NC WILL BRIEFLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE A WEAK UPPER LOW
VCTNY OF SAV GA. SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS UPPER
SYSTEM...IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE WX.
HOWEVER...LOWER SFC PRES VCTNY OF THE GA/SC COAST WILL KEEP A LGT
ONSHORE FLOW INTO ESTRN NC THU AND FRI. WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE AVN
SFC EVOLUTION AS THE ETA SEEMS RATHER CONVOLUTED LOWERING PRES
INLAND TOO MUCH. WE PREFERRED LOWER PRES ALONG THE COAST AS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
FTR...SLIGHTLY COOLER 500 MB TEMPS AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE...I WILL
GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE SE COAST ON THU. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
RELOCATING TO THE GULF ON FRI...A DRY FCST WILL BE MAINTAINED. A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A 20 OR 30 POP (DEPENDING ON RADAR COVERAGE)
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ANY RESIDUAL LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

EFP: A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE IN VCTNY OF MO WILL DOMINATE THE WX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
FTR WILL DEFLECT SIG SHORTWAVE ENERGY AWAY FROM ESTRN WHILE
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY LOW MEAN RH PROFILE. THE 12Z AVN DISPLAYED A
NEW WRINKLE IN BRINGING A WET TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY ASSCTD
WITH GULF LOW PRES. I HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS AND WILL KEEP THE EFP DRY
THROUGH DAY 7.

MARINE: 17Z OBS INDICATING WEAK BNDRY JUST TO OUR S WITH LT N-NE
SYNPTC WINDS ACROSS MOST INLAND SPOTS. ALONG THE COAST...THE CBRZ
HAS PUSHED IN A FEW MILES HELPING TO TURN THE WINDS S ALONG THE
BEACHES. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BNDRY TO THE S WITH WEAK RIDGING
GENERALLY N-NE OF HAT. THE MAIN DIFF ON MDLS CONCERN WIND
DIRECTIONS...AS ETA IS STRONGER WITH SFC LOW DVLPMNT SW OF THE
REGION. OVERALL...FAVORING AVN WINDS GIVEN ITS REASONABLE SFC LOW
DVLPMNT TO OUR SW AND EXPECTING LT WINDS WITH AN ERLY COMPONENT NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND SEAS AOB 3FT.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO/PETRO

NCZ093>095-098-312015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...CARTERET...CRAVEN...JONES
AND PAMLICO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
BAYBORO TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAVELOCK...OR FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NEW BERN TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAVELOCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR HAVELOCK AT 320 PM EDT...AND
BAYBORO AT 330 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING .

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

CTC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY, NC
319 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0310 PM    NEW BERN                  NC   .75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   CRAVEN                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

CTC