Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, July 31, 2002

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS EARLY TSRA THREAT AND TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD ALTHOUGH PREFERRED SFC
FEATURES FROM ETA EARLY.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SEVERE TSRA. SFC LOW PRESSURE STILL FAIRLY UNORGANIZED EARLY THIS
MORNING HOWEVER FEATURE GAINS BETTER DEFINITION AND SHIFTS EAST TO
WESTERN FA BY MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN THE NEAR TERM SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
TSRA FROM KMVX/KBIS 88S WILL PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH FA EARLY THIS
AM BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM LATE
AM INTO MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON TEMPS HOWEVER DO EXPECT A GOOD DOSE OF AFTERNOON SOLAR TO
AID IN DESTABILIZATION. AS SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO AREA.
AT THIS TIME FAVORED AREA FOR INITIATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LESS CAPPING AND ON NOSE OF UPPER
JET. AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES REGION GOOD MID LEVEL
COOLING WILL PUT WHOLE AREA UNDER GUN AS CAP ERODES WITH EXCEPTION
OF FAR NW BEHIND FRONT. SVR THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST OF RIVER THIS
EVENING AND BASED ON FROPA SHOULD EXIT FA BY MIDNIGHT.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION DIVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT. WE
SHOULD THEN SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AS
SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES CONTROL. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD
OF NEXT WAVE LATE FRIDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN STILL ON TRACK
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED.

.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER