Flash Flood in New York, April 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
858 PM EST TUE APR 2 2002

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS OUR FA THIS
EVENING AS THE MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERRIDES THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW YORK
STATE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR AREA SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS ABOUT
ONE HALF THE AMOUNT THAT THE ETA WAS FORECASTING. THE LOWER QPF/S
SEEM TO BE RELATED TO THE FACT THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS QUITE A BIT
WEAKER THAN WHAT THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE ETA) WERE FORECASTING.

THE SURFACE LOW AT 00Z WAS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODEL
FORECAST POSITIONS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWEST PRESSURE FALLS WHICH ARE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AREA. THIS TRACK OF THE LOW AGREES BEST WITH THE
AVNS MOVEMENT.

THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. I WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WORDING OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT WILL TONE DOWN THE MENTION
OF HEAVY RAIN.  I THINK AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO .50 INCH OF RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AREA
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHILE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD KEEP
QPF/S BELOW FFG...THE DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAIN COULD
STILL CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR PEOPLE LIVING NEAR SMALL
CREEKS OR IN LOW LYING AREAS. THEREFORE...I  WILL LEAVE UP THE FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS POSTED EARLIER.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE APPROACH OF THE POTENT LOOKING SHORT WAVE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE TUG OF WAR BETWEEN
WINTER AND SPRING CONTINUES.

.BUF...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NYZ001>008-010>014.