Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, April 3, 2002

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
125 PM EST WED APR 3 2002

CURRENT/TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE CWA. INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW COMING FROM THE NW...WCSB TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...AND THE
DEVELOPING ECSB...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONVECTION
INCREASING OVER THE CWA...SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. NW AREAS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING RAINFALL WILL STABILIZE AND EXPECT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DEBRIS RAINS/FEW TSTMS...MAYBE AN ISOLD CONVECTIVE SHRA/TS
DEVELOPING IN ANY UNUSED POCKETS OF UNSTABLE AIR...HOWEVER THE BULK
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL BE FROM SRN OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTHWARD.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG GIVEN THE CURRENT/EXPECTED COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL.

THU...DIFFUSE/SHALLOW COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE CWA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER FLOW ZONAL WITH NO
MODEL-INDICATED H25 DIVG. WITH MINIMAL MID/UPPER SUPPORT AND RATHER
WEAK/DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL CONVG...WILL GO WITH CONSIDERABLE CLDS AND
LOW SCT POPS AREAWIDE WITH N-NE WINDS WORKING INTO THE CWA BY AFTNN.
MAYBE AN ISOLD (20) EVENING SHRA...PERHAPS A 30 SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...SURFACE HIGH CENTER BUILD WELL NORTH OF FL...CAUSING WINDS
TO VEER TO NE...SHALLOW AT FIRST (H85 WINDS NW-N DURING THE DAY) BUT
STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING BY FRI NIGHT/SAT. AIR MASS NOW LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT TOO DRY TO SUPPORT COASTAL SHRA ANY FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE CAPE SAT MORNING AND WILL INDICATE AS SUCH. WILL ONLY
HAVE MORNING COASTAL SHRA FOR THE DAY PERIOD...BREEZY ALONG THE
COAST WITH TEMPS COOLER THAN THEYVE BEEN IN QUITE A WHILE.

SUN-WED...GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN A BIT SAT NIGHT/SUN AS FLOW
VEERS TO E. I WILL KEEP ISOLD COASTAL SHRA...IN SPITE OF MEAN DRYING
INDICATED BY AVN. ANTICIPATE SUFFICIENT SHALLOW MOISTURE FOR LOW-TOP
SHRA...AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF SFC-H85 EASTERLIES...ASSUMING A FEW FORM
...THEYLL HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING THE COAST. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
NEAR THE COAST WITH PLEASANT TEMPS...NOT TOO FAR FROM WHERE THEY
SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHORT WAVE H50 RIDGE BUILD OVERHEAD MON
AS WINDS VEER TO SE....THEN EVENTUALLY S AND SW TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AND I PLAN TO GO ABOVE MEX MOS TEMPS...ESP
BY DAYS 6-7.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. AS HAS BEEN CONTINUALLY MENTIONED...MARINE
AREA WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER SCA CONDITIONS SAT/SUN AS THE NE-E
PGRAD TIGHTENS.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB WB 065/078 061/073 056 2420
MCO WB 066/082 062/079 058 2420
MLB WB 067/082 064/076 061 4431=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-032200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1105 AM EST WED APR 3 2002

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH...
...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS SOUTH...
...GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES...

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AREAS FROM THE OCALA FOREST AND
ORMOND BEACH SOUTH TO LAKE KISSIMMEE AND TITUSVILLE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR IN THIS AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AS A RESULT OF
THE ONGOING RAINFALL. THIS WILL DECREASE THE THREAT OF ANY STORMS
WHICH FORM IN THIS AREA BECOMING STRONG.

TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW LOCAL SEA AND LAKE BREEZES TO FORM AND INTERACT
WITH BOUNDARIES RESULTING FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...WITH
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES MAY OCCUR.

MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE LOCATION IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES
YOUR LOCATION. REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES DURING A
LIGHTNING STORM.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS...BARRIER ISLANDS AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS EVENING....MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

A TWO TO THREE FOOT OCEAN SWELL WILL CONTINUE THE GREATER THAN NORMAL
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. THE
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOST COMMON AND STRONGEST DURING THE OUTGOING
TIDE...FROM AROUND MID DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LIFEGUARDS IN
VOLUSIA COUNTY REPORTED RESCUING AT LEAST A DOZEN PERSON FROM RIP
CURRENTS ON TUESDAY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
CHECK WITH THE LOCAL BEACH PATROL...AND ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

CRISTALDI