High Wind in New Jersey, September 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002

CURRENTLY...A FOG BANK IS SITTING OVER MUCH OF BROOKLYN...QUEENS AND
LONG ISLAND. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
CITY IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...AS WELL AS COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
OTHERWISE...IT IS A HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE CITY AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND...AROUND 70 IN
NEW JERSEY AND CONNECTICUT...AND IN THE 60S IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF TWO DEGREES IS ABOUT AS DRY AS ANY
REPORTING STATION IS OBSERVING. WINDS HAVE BEEN NEARLY NON-EXISTENT
WITH ALL AREAS BETWEEN CALM AND 5 MPH. FOG HAS CAUSED SOME SEVERE
VISIBILITY LOWERING THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LONG ISLAND/BROOKLYN/QUEENS DROPPING BELOW 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES.

SHORT-TERM...GUSTAV HAS MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND HAS
STARTED TO ACCELERATE. AS THIS STORM RACES AWAY FROM THE COAST SOUTH
OF OUR WATERS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THIS DEEPENING...
COMBINED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE CITY...THE SURROUNDING SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT FROM MID-DAY INTO THIS EVENING. (BASICALLY ALL ZONES
EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL CT...AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY) TWO REASONS FOR THIS...ONE...HAVE ALREADY SEEN REPORTS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 KT ALONG WITH GUSTS BETTER THAN 30 KT IN
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN WITHOUT THE AID
OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. AND TWO...THE MODELS HAVE GUSTAV WITH A
PRESSURE AT 06Z SOME 5 TO 10 MB HIGHER THAN THE LATEST ADVISORY.
EVEN WITH THAT UNDERESTIMATION...MOS GUIDANCE HAS FORECAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT AT SEVERAL STATIONS. COMBINE
THESE TWO AND DONT REALLY SEE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING A FEW METAR
OBSERVATIONS OF 31+ MPH OR 46+ MPH.

OTHERWISE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN BY MID-DAY...WHICH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AT OR JUST UNDER THE 80 DEGREE
MARK...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE ALMOST PERFECT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER. PROBABLY
WILL HAVE TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS AT NIGHT AND BREAK OUT A BLANKET WITH
NIGHT-TIME TEMPS IN THE 50S EVEN IN THE CITY...POSSIBLY A FEW 40S
OUT THERE? (NORTH AND WEST)

MID-RANGE...THE HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THIS
WEEKEND...SETTING UP A WARMER AND MORE MOIST RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUMMER-LIKE 90 DEGREE
READINGS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE WAVED BYE-BYE UNTIL NEXT YEAR.

WILL GO TO PRESS LATE THIS MORNING...PENDING A 4 AM CONFERENCE CALL
ON GUSTAV WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PRODUCTS EXPECTED ON
STREET BETWEEN 430 AND 5 AM.

MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT...AND THAT WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT THOSE NUMBERS TO INCREASE BY ABOUT ANOTHER 3 TO 5FT BY
MID-DAY. AS FOR THE WINDS...A GALE WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND
GUSTS AROUND 45 KT. GOOD NEWS...IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT TAKE
TOO LONG TO SUBSIDE ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN. BY TOMORROW THE WINDS WILL BACK TO 10 TO 15 KT AND THE SEAS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2 TO 4 FT.

CT...WIND ADVISORY CTZ007>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY NYZ071>081. DENSE FOG ADVISORY NYZ078>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY NJZ003>006 AND NJZ011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...ANZ338-335-330-350-353-355.

JK

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-111600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST
TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA THIS MORNING.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS
GUSTAV PASSES WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL INCREASE...BECOMING
QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TO 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS GUSTAV MOVES RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

...MINOR FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM
GUSTAV IN COMBINATION WITH TIDE LEVELS WHICH ARE STILL AT
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH LEVELS FROM THE NEW MOON ON SATURDAY...ARE
CAUSING TIDE LEVELS TO RUN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS. THE SOUTHERLY SWELLS
ARE PREVENTING THE BAYS FROM DRAINING NORMALLY DURING LOW TIDE
CAUSING THE WATER TO PILE UP.

...RIP CURRENTS...
SWELLS GENERATED BY GUSTAV ARE CAUSING ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. RIP CURRENTS FORM
WHEN WATER...PILED AGAINST THE SHORE...BEGINS TO RETURN TO DEEPER
WATER. THESE CURRENTS GENERALLY EXTEND ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT
MOST FROM THE SHORE...BUT UNFORTUNATELY CAN PANIC EVEN THE MOST
EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT TRY TO
FIGHT IT. SWIM PARALLEL TO THE SHORE UNTIL YOU BREAK FREE...THEN
SWIM DIAGONALLY TOWARD THE SHORE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
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