High Wind in Connecticut, September 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002

SURFACE WINDS HAVE QUICKLY PICKED UP THIS MORNING...WITH THE 14Z LGA
OB ALREADY GUSTING TO 33 KT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD AND OFF THE
COAST. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NOW REPORTING PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER...STRONG CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 85H MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE SKIES TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STILL AN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG NW FLOW COMBATS A SE SWELL.

ZONE UPDATE SENT OUT AT 930 AM TO REMOVE FOG SERVES CURRENT FORECAST
WELL.

********************PREVIOUS 400 AM DISCUSSION***********************

CURRENTLY...A FOG BANK IS SITTING OVER MUCH OF BROOKLYN...QUEENS AND
LONG ISLAND. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
CITY IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...AS WELL AS COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
OTHERWISE...IT IS A HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE CITY AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND...AROUND 70 IN
NEW JERSEY AND CONNECTICUT...AND IN THE 60S IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF TWO DEGREES IS ABOUT AS DRY AS ANY
REPORTING STATION IS OBSERVING. WINDS HAVE BEEN NEARLY NON-EXISTENT
WITH ALL AREAS BETWEEN CALM AND 5 MPH. FOG HAS CAUSED SOME SEVERE
VISIBILITY LOWERING THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LONG ISLAND/BROOKLYN/QUEENS DROPPING BELOW 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES.

SHORT-TERM...GUSTAV HAS MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND HAS
STARTED TO ACCELERATE. AS THIS STORM RACES AWAY FROM THE COAST SOUTH
OF OUR WATERS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THIS DEEPENING...
COMBINED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE CITY...THE SURROUNDING SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT FROM MID-DAY INTO THIS EVENING. (BASICALLY ALL ZONES
EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL CT...AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY) TWO REASONS FOR THIS...ONE...HAVE ALREADY SEEN REPORTS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 KT ALONG WITH GUSTS BETTER THAN 30 KT IN
SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN WITHOUT THE AID
OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. AND TWO...THE MODELS HAVE GUSTAV WITH A
PRESSURE AT 06Z SOME 5 TO 10 MB HIGHER THAN THE LATEST ADVISORY.
EVEN WITH THAT UNDERESTIMATION...MOS GUIDANCE HAS FORECAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT AT SEVERAL STATIONS. COMBINE
THESE TWO AND DONT REALLY SEE MUCH OF A PROBLEM GETTING A FEW METAR
OBSERVATIONS OF 31+ MPH OR 46+ MPH.

OTHERWISE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN BY MID-DAY...WHICH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AT OR JUST UNDER THE 80 DEGREE
MARK...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE ALMOST PERFECT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER. PROBABLY
WILL HAVE TO CLOSE THE WINDOWS AT NIGHT AND BREAK OUT A BLANKET WITH
NIGHT-TIME TEMPS IN THE 50S EVEN IN THE CITY...POSSIBLY A FEW 40S
OUT THERE? (NORTH AND WEST)

MID-RANGE...THE HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST THIS
WEEKEND...SETTING UP A WARMER AND MORE MOIST RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SUMMER-LIKE 90 DEGREE
READINGS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE WAVED BYE-BYE UNTIL NEXT YEAR.

WILL GO TO PRESS LATE THIS MORNING...PENDING A 4 AM CONFERENCE CALL
ON GUSTAV WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. PRODUCTS EXPECTED ON
STREET BETWEEN 430 AND 5 AM.

MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT...AND THAT WILL INCREASE.
EXPECT THOSE NUMBERS TO INCREASE BY ABOUT ANOTHER 3 TO 5FT BY
MID-DAY. AS FOR THE WINDS...A GALE WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 30 TO 35 KT AND
GUSTS AROUND 45 KT. GOOD NEWS...IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT TAKE
TOO LONG TO SUBSIDE ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN. BY TOMORROW THE WINDS WILL BACK TO 10 TO 15 KT AND THE SEAS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2 TO 4 FT.

CT...WIND ADVISORY CTZ007>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY NYZ071>081.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY NJZ003>006 AND NJZ011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...ANZ338-335-330-350-353-355.

DW