Flooding in New Jersey, November 5 to 6, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2002

WE WILL BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS FCST PKG AS QUICK
HITTING BUT INTENSE LO PRES SYS MOVS NEAR THE RGN. FCST MDLS ALL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS SYS AS IT REACHES THE CST ON WED WITH THE
UKMET/GFS DEEPEST. IF WE HAD OUR DRUTHERS WE WOULD LEAN MORE
TWD THE COMP ETA AT 36HRS GIVEN THIS IS A 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AND H5 PAT
STILL LOOKS POS TILT. BUT WITH 150+ JET WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
PICT...THE DEEPER GFS/UKMET/GEM LOOK BETTER AT 48HRS. SEMANTICAL
ANYWAY AS LO PRES WON/T BE A 96LB WEAKLING. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS
CONCERNED...NOT TOO MANY CHGS FROM PREV PKG. PRFR HVYR QPF DEPICTED
BY GFS GIVEN STG ISENTROPIC LIFT/LLVL WAA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFSHR AND IT WOULD APR ATTM FLASHIER STREAMS SHOULD HANDLE
PCPN. MIGHT BE SNOW AT THE START UP N B4 STG WAA GETS GOING AND WE
WILL END PCPN FASTER ON WED AS ALL THE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT. DON/T
SEE ANY MAJOR CHGS TO THE EXTDD. WARMUP IN STORE FOR WEEKEND.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED STGR FCSTD OMEGAS TO KEEP CHC OF LATE DAY PCPN IN
FAR SWRN ZNS. OTRWISE EXPANSIVE CI SHIELD WILL CONT TO OVERSPREAD
OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF TDY. FAR NWRN ZNS WORDING A BIT TRICKY AS
SC/MSTR FCSTD TO RMN TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WILL WORD
THEM AS BCMG CLDY. FULL SUN MAXT MACROS POINT TWD COOLER GFS MAV
GUID.

TNGT STG ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ESP IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NGT SHLD
HELP OVERSPREAD PCPN ACRS OUR CWA RATHER QUICKLY. IN FAR NRN ZONES
THERE IS SGFCNT DRY AIR FCST BTWN 5K AND 15K TO FOSTER SOME EVAP
COOLG AND NEGATE ANY SLEET CHCS. IT ALSO (FCSTS) THE SOUNDG TO GO
BLO FREEZING EXCEPT FOR LOWEST 1-2K. THUS AT THE ONSET SOME OF THE
HIER TRRN MIGHT SEE SOME SNOW AND WE WILL LEAVE CUR WORDG IN. WITH
HI PRES MOVG OFSHR AND RATHER STG WAA PCPN SHLD TURN QUICKLY TO RAIN
WITH LTL OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. FTHR S SOUNDG APRS TOO WARM FOR PCPN
TO BE ANYTHING BUT RAIN. MINS WILL PBLY OCR DURG EVAP COOLING PHASE
OF PCPN DURG THE EVE WITH TEMPS RISING TWD MRNG AS LO PRES NEARS.

CSTL WISE NEW MOON/SPRING TIDES HAVE SOME OF THE HIEST ASTRONOMICALS
OF THE SEASON. EVEN W/O A CSTL SYS SOME HI TIDES WED MRNG ARE WI
HALF A FOOT OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THRESHOLD. CUR TIDAL DEPTS ARE
RUNNING ABT HALF A FOOT ABV NML CLSR TO NGM/S THAN GFS/S TIDAL DEPT
GUIDANCE. INTERSTING AS NGM HAS THE WEAKEST LOW COME WED MRNG VS
STGST GFS. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABT 1.5 FT ABV NML IS NOT STRETCHING
IT GIVEN STRENGTH OF LO PRES. WINDS MAY VERY WELL BE STARTING TO GO
OFSHR AT TIMES OF HI TIDE (ARND 13Z) WED MRNG IN OUR SRN ZNS. BUT
ATTM THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL AND NOT ISSUE A CFW FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE GREATEST THREAT TO REACH MDT FLOODING BASED ON THIS DATA SET IS
FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. WE WILL ISSUE CFW FOR THE OCEANFRONT
AND RARITAN BAY CTYS.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED ANY RMNG FCSTD LLVL WAA/MFC TO KEEP PCPN CHCS. THIS
IS MAINLY OUR FAR NRN ZNS. PVA LOOKS CHLNZD DURG THE FIRST HALF OF
DAY AND DEEP MSTR MOVES OFSHR PRETTY QUICKLY. WE WILL KEEP CHCS ALG
THE NRN NJ CST AND MAINLY N OF THER I78/I195 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOW
MOVG OFSHR AND DWNSLPG CONSIDERATIONS...SKIES SHLD BCM PTLY SUNNY IN
SERN HALF OF OUR CWA. IT LOOKS AS THO MSTR MAY BE TOO DEEP IN FAR
NRN ZNS FOR MUCH SUNSHINE. H8 TEMPS AND DOWNSLOPING WIND DIRECTION
DO SUPPORT GUID MAX TEMPS. GFS MAV MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. ETA
USUALLY COOKS THE LLVL WINDS TOO MUCH AND 50KT BTWN 4-5K SHLD BE
OVERFCSTD. NEVERTHELESS WED SHLD BE WINDY WITH MANY LEAVES FALLING
FROM THE TREES ARND HERE AND WE WILL ADD GUST TO 40/45 MPH...ESP
NRN/ERN PART OF OUR CWA.

RMNTS OF ARCTIC CDFNT MOVES THRU NRN PART OF OUR CWA THU MRNG. WE
WILL KEEP PCPN CHCS IN FOR WED NGT...AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
WITH MRNGL THICK VALUES AND THEN JUST FLRYS ERLY ON THU. H8 FLOW
BACKS TO THE W AND CAA APRS DONE BY THEN. WARMUP APRS FASTER IN THE
LATEST GFS AND WE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A BIT ON THE WEEKEND. DON/T
WANT TO GO AS HI AS THEY COULD BE IF THIS WAS A WRMR ENSEMBLE MEMBER
RUN WE ARE SEEING.

MARINE: WE/LL CONT SCA HEADLINE FOR TNGT AND GALES FOR WED.

TU FOR COORD BGM/OKX.

.PHI...
DE...CSTL FLOOD WATCH FOR DE ZONE 4 FOR WED MRNG.
MD...NONE.
NJ...CSTL FLOOD WATCH FOR NJ ZONES 12/13/14/24>26 FOR WED MRNG.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

TFG

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...
DELAWARE AND THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...

SOME HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN IN MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE OR SATELLITE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE
LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.