Flash Flood in Louisiana, November 5, 2002

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
150 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2002

BROAD SFC LOW JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST PRODUCING LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO S LA. FLOOD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAMERON...CALCASIEU...AND JEFF DAVIS UNTIL 5
AM.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING
ASHORE JEFFERSON COUNTY/CAMERON PARISH SHORTLY...AND EXPECTED TO BE
IN NE LA BY 12Z THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL ACROSS ALL OF LA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BY MID MORNING...
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE NW ZONES JUST S OF LFK...
SLOWLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE
MID/UPPER TROF SWINGING EAST...BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. FOR TODAY...ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA...SO THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
THIS MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS IN THE WEAK
WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING...SO WILL WORD THOSE ZONES ACCORDINGLY.

AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. STRONGER N
WINDS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COOL AND CLEAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST...AND A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST BY SATURDAY...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH SUNDAY.
THE MRF DOESNT ADVERTISE ANYTHING NICE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
EVEN STRONGER TROF DIGS INTO OLD MEXICO...WITH OUR AREA RECEIVING
THE MOIST SW FLOW AND LOTS OF PRECIP.

.LCH...FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALL ZONES.
...LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
    TU WE    TH    TW T
AEX 62 45/68 38/65 +2000
BPT 66 48/70 42/67 +2000
LCH 67 49/70 42/67 +2000
LFT 69 50/70 42/67 +4000

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CST MON NOV 4 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTING OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUOUS
PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS
A PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FORMS IN TEXAS...AND MOVES EAST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL
BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

ALSO...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EVEN HIGHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION...
THE ACIVIATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WELCOME RELIEF WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLING OVER THE AREA...GIVING CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LANDRENEAU