High Wind in New Jersey, January 13, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2002

PCPN IN FORM OF -RA BEHAVING ABOUT AS FCST AND SHOULD LIFT OUT OF
ALL EXCEPT NERN AND PERHAPS ECENTRAL PORTION OF NJ BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...DECENT MID LVL VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE AM
HOURS...HENCE THE CHC OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AROUND FA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. IN THE NW THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL
TROF IS COLD ENOUGH TO PERHAPS KICK UP SOME SHSN...BUT SUBSIDENCE
CAP LOWERS TO H8 PRETTY RAPIDLY AND THERE SHOULDNT BE A SIG PROBLEM
WITH ACCUM.

THINK THE STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. THE MID LVL TROF TILTS
NEGATIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH FA...THE SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ADIABATIC TO
ABOUT H8 THROUGH THE DAY...THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG ISALOBARIC
COMPONENT TO DEAL WITH...AND WINDS AT H9 AND H8 ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. GOING WITH A WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES...
AND THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO CLEAR
OUT...PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM...AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. RADIATING CONDITIONS COULD SET
UP LATE TONIGHT...BUT DIDNT GO TOO MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE UP FOR A WHILE.

NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO STAY N OF THE FA. THE THETA E ADVECTION
LOOKS FAIR AND SO DOES THE LIFT...BUT GIVEN ITS PATH PCPN SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND...WITH EXCEPTION OF NW...MAINLY RA.

FCSTID = 45/NYY

MPO   32  17  37  27 /  50  20  30  40
ABE   38  20  41  32 /  40  10  20  40
RDG   39  20  43  32 /  40  10  20  40
PHL   45  28  46  35 /  20   0  10  30
12N   37  17  37  27 /  50  20  30  40
SMQ   43  21  44  34 /  20   0  20  30
TTN   43  23  44  34 /  20   0  20  30
MIV   46  21  50  36 /  10   0  10  30
ACY   47  31  45  39 /  10   0  10  30
ILG   45  25  46  35 /  20   0  10  30
DOV   46  24  50  36 /  10   0  10  30
GED   46  24  50  36 /  10   0  10  30
ESN   46  25  50  36 /  10   0  10  30

.PHI...
DE...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY NJZ001-007>010-012>026.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
.MARINE...GALE WARNING COAST AND DE BAY.

DEZ001>004-NJZ012>014-016-019>026-132100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - POSSIBLE BLOWOUT TIDES MAINLY TONIGHT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2002

...BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND THE BACK BAYS OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
INTENSIFY STRONGLY THROUGH MIDDAY AND DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW WILL CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
...STARTING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. IN
FACT...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AREAS OVER NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE TODAY FOR WEST WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 45
MPH AND POSSIBLY TO 50 MILES AN HOUR. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST OVER THE LAND
THIS EVENING...AND MORE GRADUALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

LOW TIDE TODAY ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS WILL BE AT
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR TOWARD SUNSET AND
EARLY TONIGHT...AND THE NEXT LOW TIDE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MOST TROUBLESOME REGARDING BLOWOUT TIDES...WILL OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT EXCESSIVELY LOW TIDES COULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND BE AROUND 1 FT BELOW MLLW TO
AS MUCH AS 2 FT BELOW MLLW ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS
AND AROUND THE BACK BAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
NORTHERN AREAS...FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...WOULD HAVE LOWER TIDES AND A MORE SEVERE THREAT THAN AREAS
SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY AND TOWARD FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...BUT ALL
MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF BLOWOUT TIDES AND
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY.

THESE EXCESSIVELY LOW TIDES POSE A THREAT FOR VESSELS GOING AGROUND
SINCE THERE IS LESS CLEARANCE IN THE WATER. ALSO...MARINERS MAY WANT
TO USE MORE LINE TO SECURE BOATS SINCE THE RANGE OF HIGH AND LOW
TIDE WILL BE QUITE HIGH.

THESE BLOWOUT TIDE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS WELL AS COMMERCIAL RADIO AND
TV FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.