High Wind in Colorado, January 13, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
220 PM MST SAT JAN 12 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NERN CO
TNGT THROUGH SUNDAY.  WIND IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TNGT AND SUNDAY
MRNG.  WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH ACROSS NRN CO TNGT. 12Z
MM5 AMPLIFIED A GOOD MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE FRONT RANGE THIS EVNG
WITH A 70+ KT WIND MAX EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THIS MODEL
HOWEVER HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO OVERDO THIS WAVE IN THE PAST.  A LOOK
AT THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS CONFINED THE STRONGEST WINDS TO AREAS
AOA 750 MB.  THE 18Z MMF ALSO WAS TRENDING THINGS IN THIS DIRECTION.
AS THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY TNGT ...WIND TRANSITIONS FM A CHINOOK TO
A BORA EVENT.  SOME H5-H3 QG DECENT TO WORK WITH BUT MID LVL
INSTABILITIES ARE ONLY AROUND 5C/KM.  THIS MAY PREVENT SOME OF THE
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR INTO THE MID LVLS FM MIXING INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR.  THE FORECAST SANGSTER DATA DID NOT INDICATE ANYTHING
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE EITHER.  WITH THIS IN MID...I HAVE OPTED TO DROP
THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 38>40...BUT UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  RHEA/THALER SNOW MODELS
YIELD 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOUNTAINS AREAS LATE TNGT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.  WILL GO AHD AND ADD SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS WEST OF
THE DIVIDE.  DRIER ON SUNDAY BUT 100 KT H3 JET STILL OVERHEAD.  SOME
H5-H3 QG DECENT LINGERS OVER THE CWA AS WELL.  BEST MID INSTBY WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7C/KM.  NO HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS TO MIX AT THE SFC WILL OCCUR OVER ZONES
42...48>50.  COOPER

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  FLAT UPR LVL RDG WL BUILD ACRS AREA SUN NGT
AND MON AHEAD OF DVLPG SYSTEM OVR NWRN US.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
DRY PTRN FOR AREA SUN NGT THRU MON NGT.  HIGHS ON MON SHOULD BE NR
SEASONAL NORMALS BASED ON LATEST 700 MB TEMP FCSTS AND WK ESE LOW
LVL FLOW.

FOR TUE AND WED SYSTEM OVR NWRN US IS FCST TO MOVE EAST AND SHEAR
APART ACCORDING TO LATEST AVN AND ETA EXTENSIONS WITH SOME WK QG
ASCENT MOVING ACRS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG.  CROSS-SECTIONS FM
AVN SHOW BEST MSTR REMAINING OVR WY.  MEANWHILE A COLD FNT WL MOVE
ACRS NERN CO LATE TUE AFTN OR NGT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW TO DVLP.  GRIDDED DATA DOES SHOW RATHER STG W-E ORIENTED UPR
LVL JET ACRS NRN CO TUE NGT INTO WED WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME CSI
GENERATED PCPN IF ENOUGH MSTR IS PRESENT OVR NRN CO.  AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE ISNT VERY HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL JUST MENTION
SCT SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH A CHC OF SN OVR NERN CO.  MEANWHILE
BELIEVE LATEST AVN IS WARMING 850 MB TEMPS TOO MUCH ON TUE AS LOW
LVL FLOW WL BE MORE SELY SO DONT BELIEVE HIGHS ON TUE WL BE MORE
CLOSER TO MONDAYS HIGHS.

ON WED LATEST AVN SHOWS MSTR DECREASING BY MIDDAY AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WKN AND MOVE S OF AREA AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS ACRS
AREA.  IF THIS IS CORRECT THEN ANY CHC OF PCPN WOULD BE ENDING BY
WED MRNG.

FOR THU AND FRI LATEST AVN EXTENSION IS ALREADY SHOWING A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS MRF RUN AS IT SHOWS ANOTHER UPR
LVL TROF DIGGING S FM WRN CANADA WHICH COULD AFFECT RGN NEXT FRI.
HOWEVER FOR NOW WL GO WITH PERSISTANCE FM PREVIOUS FCST AND JUST
MENTION A CHC OF SN IN THE MTNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVR NERN CO.
KLEYLA

.DEN...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...ZNS 31/33/34/35/36.