Winter Storm and Winter Weather in New Jersey, December 24 to 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING PORTION OF
SE PA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NJ AND NORTHERN DE AND MD. SNOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER AN INCH AS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. EVEN THOUGH SNOW TOTALS MAY NOT
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TRAFFIC ON AREA
ROADWAYS TONIGHT...THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.  THANKS
CTP AND LWX FOR COORDINATION. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW IN THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NJ. HOWEVER...EXPECT SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN SE
PA...SOUTHERN NJ...NORTHERN DE...AND NE MD AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
SEGMENTED THE UPDATED WSW ACCORDINGLY.

REST OF FCST LEFT AS IS.

PREV AFD AS IS:

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HAVE JUST AMENDED THE ZFP AND RDF TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SNOW MOVING NORTH ON THE DELMARVA COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (INCH OR SO) THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES
TO ALL RAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL NOT
ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF OUR CWA SINCE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDNT REACH NECESSARY CRITERIA.  HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR TIMING...BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY SNOW EVENT
IN POCONOS AND SO WILL LEAVE WARNING AS IS. WILL ALSO KEEP ADVISORY
IN LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS COUNTY.

THANKS LWX FOR COORDINATION.

JJM

PREVIOUS AFD BELOW.

###################################################################

LOTS OF WX TO CONTEND WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HAVE ALRDY ISSUED FFA FOR
PTNS OF SE PA AND SRN NJ AND NRN DE ERLIER THIS AFTN WITH XPCTD QPF
AMTS OF ARND AN INCH IN THIS AREA...ALNG WITH UPGRADE OF WNTR STRM
WTCH TO WNTR STRM WRNG IN SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX CTY NJ AND WINTER
WX ADVSRY IN LEHI VLY AND.  IN ADDITION WL POST CSTL FLD WTCH FOR
NRN NJ CST AND HOIST GALE WRNGS FOR ENTIRE CSTL WATERS...WITH IDEA
THAT THERE WILL BE STORM FORCE GSTS.

MDLS VARY JUST A BIT WITH ETA BEING A BIT FURTHER W IN LOW TRACK NR
NJ WHILE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE A BIT MORE OUT TO SEA.  NO MATTER
WHAT...NOT A CLASSICAL SNOW STORM EVENT FOR THIS AREA.  COLDER AIR
SHUD COME IN BEHIND STORM AND RN SHUD CHANGE OVR TO SNW BEFORE
ENDING.

ON MARINE...UP WITH GLW AND CSTL FLD WTCH FOR NRN NJ CST.

HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY.

FCSTID =   14
MPO   24  31  19  28 /  60  90  90  30
ABE   28  32  23  32 /  60  90  90  10
RDG   29  33  25  34 /  60  90  90  10
PHL   33  36  27  38 /  60  90  90  10
12N   25  31  21  30 /  60  90  90  30
SMQ   29  36  26  35 /  60  90  90  10
TTN   32  35  27  37 /  60  90  90  10
MIV   35  37  28  39 /  60  90  90  10
ACY   36  37  29  40 /  60  90  90  10
ILG   33  36  27  37 /  60  90  90  10
DOV   35  37  28  40 /  60  90  90  10
GED   35  38  28  40 /  60  90  90  10
ESN   35  38  29  40 /  60  90  90  10

.PHI...
DE...FLOOD WATCH FOR CHRISTMAS FOR ZONE DEZ001.

MD...FLOOD WATCH FOR CHRISTMAS FOR ZONE MDZ008.

NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS FOR ZONE NJZ001.

FLOOD WATCH FOR CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES NJZ009>010...NJZ012...NJZ015>019.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES NJZ012>014...NJZ020...
NJZ026.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING FOR ZONES NJZ012>014...
NJZ020...NJZ026.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES
NJZ007>008.

PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES
PAZ054>055.

FLOOD WATCH FOR CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES PAZ067>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS FOR ZONES
PAZ060>062.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ZONES ANZ430-431-450>455.

JWH

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-241245-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
551 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POCONOS...NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LEHIGH
VALLEY...AND BERKS COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA.

SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS MAINLY RAIN.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THEY INCLUDE...A WINTER STORM WATCH(WWUS41 KPHI
PHLWSWPHI)...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT(WWUS81 KPHI PHLSPSPHI)...
AND A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT(NOUS41 KPHI PHLPNSPHI).

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

KRUZDLO

NJZ009-010-PAZ067>069-250400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

...PHILADELPHIAS NORTHWEST SUBURBAN COUNTIES AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
ARE SET TO RECEIVE THE MOST VARIED WEATHER IN THE UPCOMING STORM...

DURING THIS EVENING SNOW WILL SPREAD UP INTO CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND
BUCKS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND HUNTERDON AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THEN TO RAIN DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE AROUND
TWO INCHES, WITH A LITTLE LESS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTIES
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE NORTH.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT
EACH OF THE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
AT THAT TIME.

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP IN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT.  THE SECOND LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY BE SURE TO
CHECK THE FORECAST EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE FOR ANY UPDATED INFORMATION.

IOVINO

DEZ002>004-NJZ021>025-027-251100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NIGHT.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN BEFORE PASSING OFF OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT TO
SEA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM LONG BEACH ISLAND, NEW
JERSEY NORTH.  AS A RESULT, THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH.

FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST FROM BRIGANTINE AND ATLANTIC CITY SOUTH,
AND FOR THE DELAWARE COAST AND DELAWARE BAY, MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AROUND WEDNESDAYS MIDDAY HIGH TIDE.

DO NOT PARK YOUR VEHICLE IN AN AREA THAT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO TIDAL
FLOODING.  ALSO DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATER, THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST.  THE MAY
ALSO BE SOME BEACH EROSION ASSOCIATE WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
REDUCING THE THREAT OF TIDAL FLOODING.  ACTUALLY STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW WATER
PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST.

IOVINO