Flash Flood and Flooding in Florida, December 24 to 25, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
825 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

CURRENTLY...LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER
THE NE GULF AND THE N FA...HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE CENT FA
AND BECAME PARALLEL TO MID/UPPER FLOW. STILL GETTING SOME WIND GUST
OF 20 TO 25 KTS WITH STRONGER STORMS AROUND TPA BAY. SFC FRONT WELL
TO THE NW OVER THE W FL PANHANDLE. 00Z SOUNDING CAME IN WITH SW WINDS
30-40 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC...THUS EXPECT GUSTY WIND THREAT TO
CONTINUE WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING.

REST OF TONIGHT...PROBABLY BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER THE CENT FA DUE TO THE SLOWER
MOTION OF THE PRECIP AREA. WILL HIGHLIGHT LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
IN NOWCASTS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES...ESPECIALLY FOR PINELLAS...WHERE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE
TRAINING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIP TO END FROM N TO S LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIP ALREADY FINISHED OVER LEVY COUNTY. SEEMS CONVECTION/PRECIP
WONT REACH THE S FA TIL MUCH LATER TONIGHT.

WILL HOLD OFF ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE UPDATING TO ESTABLISH BETTER
TREND.

--MARINE--
WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY IN THE MESO-HIGH REGION. BELIEVE THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY...AND EXPECT WINDS TO PICK BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SCA GIVEN SEAS STILL UP EVEN WITH
TEMPORARY LOWERING OF WIND SPEEDS.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM NWS TBW.

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60
       NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
       HEAVY SURF ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER TONIGHT
       AND WEDNESDAY.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
500 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
...INCREASING WINDS...SEAS...AND TIDES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO TENNESSEE LATER TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
SUNCOAST BY DAYBREAK ON CHRISTMAS.

THUNDERSTORMS:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM
SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD.  THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF WIND GUST TO 30 MPH.  BY THIS
EVENING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN GULF
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THIS LINE WOULD MOST LIKELY CROSS THE SUNCOAST
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT.

SOME CELLS ALONG THE LINE WILL BE STRONG...WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH.  A FEW MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MARINE WINDS...SEAS...AND TIDES:
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS...BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
UNTIL THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES.  OFFSHORE...SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 FEET EXCEPT 10 FEET BEYOND 60 NM OUT.  THE PROLONGED SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE TIDES UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TIDES OVERNIGHT WILL BE AT ASTRONOMICAL LOW VALUES.
HOWEVER...SHOULD A LINE OF STRONG STORMS COINCIDE WITH HIGH
TIDE...THE ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS MAY BE PUSHED ONSHORE...CAUSING
OVERWASH AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL:
DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN
TODAY...GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTH.  ADDITIONAL AVERAGE RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS.  THOUGH
GROUND WATER LEVELS HAVE RECEDED SINCE LAST WEEK...SURFACE SOIL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...AND HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
COULD PRODUCE URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING TONIGHT.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
DEVELOPMENTS BY MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFETY SHOULD WARNINGS BE
ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

...BLUSTERY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
...MORNING FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL USHER
IN GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH OR MORE.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...BUT WITH THE WIND IT WILL FEEL
CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES.  A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
SUNCOAST TO END THE WEEK.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR 32
EACH MORNING FROM HERNANDO COUNTY NORTHWARD THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY
LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

FLZ039-042-043-048-250030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
7 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

HERNANDO...CITRUS...LEVY AND SUMTER.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPRING HILL...INVERNESS...CHIEFLAND AND
BROOKSVILLE.

HOWEVER...AT 655 PM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM
SOUTHERN PASCO COUNTY...SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH AND
PINELLAS COUNTIES...THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OUT TO 50
NM. THIS LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEAR ONE INCH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR ANY
UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

MORALES