Lightning Strike in New Jersey, April 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

SEA/BAY BREEZE INTERACTION COUPLED WITH LIFT ASSCD WITH REMNANTS
FROM OVRNGT CONVTN MOVG IN FROM THE NW SET OFF TRW OVR SERN NJ.
TERRAIN EFX NO DOUBT PLAYED A ROLE IN INITIATING TRW OVR ERN PA. MD
TRW/S ARE HAVING TRBL MOVG EWD BUT ALL IN ALL WL FCST SCT EVE
ACTIVITY...THEN AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVG IN
FROM THE SW MAY HELP TO INITIATE MORE CONVTN OVRNGT. ETA DOWNPLAYS
THIS RELATIVE TO THE NGM BUT ALL MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS CHC POPS
TNGT...WHICH IS ACCEPTED FOR SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THEN...TEMPS
ARE STILL ELEVATED FRI AS MAIN FNT APCHS FROM THE NW...AND WHICH
SHUD MOV THRU THE CWA LATE LATE FRI NITE / SAT MRNG. NCEP LEANS MORE
TWD THE ETA SOLN WITH A MORE NWD POSN OF SFC FNT...AND THIS IS
ACCEPTED SO WE/LL KEEP CHC POPS ERY CNTRL ZONES AND ALL DAY S ON
SAT. FOR FRI...JUST CHC AFTN TRW NW AND LATE IN DAY ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS...WITH GOOD SUNSHINE AND SLY FLO WL GO ABV GUIDANCE FOR FRI...
AND A BIT ABV SPCLY S SAT ALTHO CLDS WL BE A WILD CARD.

NO FLAGS OR HEADLINES FOR THE MARINE FCST.

FCSTID = 17
MPO   58  80  50  68 /  30  30  40  20
ABE   59  84  55  71 /  30  30  40  30
RDG   61  86  56  72 /  30  30  40  30
PHL   64  88  60  74 /  30  30  30  30
12N   59  82  53  70 /  30  30  40  20
SMQ   62  86  57  73 /  30  30  30  30
TTN   63  87  58  74 /  30  30  30  30
MIV   62  86  58  74 /  40  30  30  40
ACY   60  79  58  69 /  40  30  30  40
ILG   63  87  60  74 /  30  30  30  30
DOV   62  86  59  75 /  40  30  30  40
GED   63  88  60  75 /  40  30  30  40
ESN   63  87  59  75 /  40  30  30  40

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.