Hail in Nebraska, May 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND INTO THE
EXTENDED...

UA ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SHOWED 5H UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SW
CONUS WITH TROUGH AND ASSOC UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF STATES. 5H SW
AND ASSOC VORT MAX OVER NORTH DAKOTA MOVING OVER RIDGE THROUGH
WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM
A LOW IN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE CWA NEAR AN IML TO VTN LINE. WEST
TO NW WIND ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. ON OTHER
SIDE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVENCTION
FORMING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT...A FEW MAYBE REACHING SEVERE. FOR THIS
EVENING WILL PUT SCHC POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH DRY
WEST. THINGS SHOULD END NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET AS LIFT MOVE EAST WITH
SHIFTING UPPER JET AND VORT MAX. WENT NEAR NGM MOS FOR LOWS AS MAV
LOOKED TO WARM.

DRY FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AS HGHTS RISE WITH
WARMING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN.
WARMER MAV TEMPS LOOKED BETTER WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SOUTH AND MID AND
UPPER 80 NORTH.

FRI NITE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT WILL INTRODUCE POPS AS AVN HAS
SHOWN STRONGER WAVE INITIATING CONVECTION OVER THE MNTNS AND MOVING
IT IN SW FLOW OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE LOW OVER THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W OVER THE CWA. H85
THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
2/3 OF CWA WITH BEST DEEP MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL LOW SHIFTS INTO KANSAS WITH BOUNDARY
OVER KS AND NE BORDER.

EXTND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST
BEGINNING SAT AS WEST COAST TROUGH DIGS AND MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THRU WED. BOTH MRF AND ECMWF HAVE THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ
BY TUE MORN. SAT-SUN WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC IN WITH SURFACE FRONT
ASSOC WITH DAKOTA LOW LAYING ACROSS CWA AND WEAK WAVES MOVING THRU
THE SW FLOW. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS TO BE
NORTH AND EAST OF AREA AND 7H TEMPS OF 14-16C. BETTER CHANCES MON ON
AS H5 LOW APPROACHES WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. LOOKING AT MEX
NUMBERS SFC FRONT HANGS NEAR KS-NE BORDER WITH MID 80S OVER KS AND
MID 70S OVER SOUTHERN NE. TEMPS ABV NORMS THRU SUN THEN COOLER MID
TO UPPER 70S MON-WED.

.LBF...NONE.

DP