Damaging Winds in Montana, July 14, 2002

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
800 PM MDT SUN JUL 14 2002

UPDATES PLANNED.

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN
INTO MONTANA. MAIN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS IS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MOVING NORTHEAST MAINLY
ACROSS TFX CWA. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEM AND
BELIEVE THAT MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO DRY LOWER TO MID
LEVELS. 00Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWS THIS AND A STRONG CAP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. BELIEVE THIS CAP WILL BE SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT INHIBITING NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTH. SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOT CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING FROM THEIR AFTERNOON HIGHS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE FROM CIRROSTRATUS BLOW OFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS SO BELIEVE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. SO WILL ALSO INCREASE LOWS FOR TONIGHT
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  BERDES

.LONG TERM...AVN AND UK MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING REGION
IN WEAK WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO REGION. WILL IGNORE THE LATTER FOR NOW.
IMPOSSIBLE-TO-TIME DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW SO WILL
RUN SILENT 20 PERCENT POPS WITH TEMPS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. FELTGEN

KGGW TTT 068/090 061/089 059/089 77323232
     BBBB 057/089 057/089 057/089 057/089 7522222222
KGDV TTT 068/092 057/090 057/089 77223232
     BBBB 060/090 060/089 060/089 060/089 7522222222

.GGW...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ZONES UNTIL 10Z.