Hail in Missouri, May 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING HIGHLIGHTS FORECAST CONCERNS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD WITH
A WARM CURLING FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT TRUE COLD FRONT
APPEARS TO LAG BACK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI DEW POINTS NEAR 70
DEGREES.  JOPLIN HAS REACHED 87 DEGREES AS OF 19Z.  LAPS DATA
SHOWED LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -8 AND CAPES OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG.  A
HEALTHY CAP WAS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT FOR HOW MUCH LONGER?

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO IF...WHEN...AND WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  RUC SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
WEAKEN NEAR THE SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER 22Z WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. EXPECT INITIATION IN THIS
AREA.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH TORNADIC POTENTIAL NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WESTERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN CAPPED AND DRY.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  POST FRONTAL
CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR DRIZZLE EARLY BUT EXPECT CLEARING BY MIDDAY. MUCH COOLER DAY IN
STORE FOR THURSDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES PLUMMET.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE
CENTER REMAINS TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH COLD...IT APPEARS THAT ANY
FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP FRIDAY AS THE HIGH RETREATS.  A WEAK
IMPULSE ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE PLAINS.  WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND.  WE WILL SEE A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION.

.SGF...NONE.

FOSTER

MOZ056>058-069>071-081>083-091-092-096>098-105-106-011830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 193 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 4 PM HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

...MODERATE RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS...

  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
  LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
  TORNADOES

* THREAT AREA AND TIMING...

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
  AFTER 3 PM...BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF A WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD LINE
  AFTER 5 PM.

* DISCUSSION...

  A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
  CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
  NORTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
  UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
  MIDDLE 80S...AND DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

  AN INHIBITING FACTOR TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A CAP OF
  WARMER AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
  STRONG THIS CAP WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IF IT WILL
  SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO
  DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
  OVER THE AREA. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS MAINLY
  NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...
  DAMAGING WINDS..AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES WILL BE EAST OF A WARSAW
  TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK...

  SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
  EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A WARSAW TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.

* EXTENDED OUTLOOK...

  NONE EXPECTED.

FOSTER

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
416 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

* HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT(S)...

  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

* THREAT AREAS AND TIMING...

  GREATEST THREAT OVER DENT AND SHANNON COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH A
  LESSER THREAT FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF I 44.

* DISCUSSION...

  VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE...TOGETHER WITH AN
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO ANY
  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A LAYER OF WARM AIR AROUND 6000
  FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A CAPPING
  MECHANISM. SHOULD THE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BE
  SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY
  DEVELOP.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION OUTLOOK...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

* EXTENDED OUTLOOK...

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

BROWNING

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF