Damaging Wind in Missouri, January 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY FOR TONIGHT.

AT 18Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO NEAR KUIN TO KPPF TO KOKC.  LATEST VIS
AND IR SATELLITE SHOW SOME CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS COVERED THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.

AVN/ETA MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH BOTH LOCATION AND TIMING OF FRONT
AND HEAVY RAIN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH AVN MAYBE JUST A LITTLE FASTER.
EXPECT FRONT TO PASS THOUGH AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z...WITH HEAVIEST
RAINS AND MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA WHICH RECEIVED HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS LAST NIGHT WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY RAIN BULLSEYE...WHICH
IS BASICALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  LOOKING AT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE...BELIEVE THE WORDING RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WILL
COVER THE EVENT.  WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL ADVISE NEXT SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.

AS FOR THURSDAY...CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH RAIN FINALLY ENDING IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
BY EVENING.  WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME WORDING CHANGES IN GOING PACKAGE
TO REFLECT THIS...INDICATING BEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING FOR
NORTHWEST AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPS FOR TONIGHT IN CURRENT PACKAGE LOOK GOOD...WITH TEMPS NEAR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON THURSDAY.  MAY TWEAK BACK TEMPS A LITTLE
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND UP THEM A CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY BASED ON
MAV/FWC GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM. IN
THE EXTENDED...WILL INCREASE HIGHS AND LOWS A CATEGORY AT LEAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

STILL NO PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND EXTEND IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

RSU

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND CROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT. DUE TO HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE REGION.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE
AND A HALF INCHES WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM CST.

ALTHOUGH LESSER RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...SOME AREAS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD MAKE THEIR NORMAL PREPARATIONS
IN ANTICIPATION OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...SUCH AS SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...IS POSSIBLE. SINCE MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH HOUR THURSDAY...EXTRA
TIME SHOULD BE ALLOTTED TO GET TO WORK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES.

JAP

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
443 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

THREATS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY TO
MID EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA
HAD AN OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS FAR
NORTH AS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST
TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WERE QUITE NUMEROUS
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY. ALL OF
THIS WILL BE THE CASE...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BISECT THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN EXIT SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY. THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL LESS THAN 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF ILLINOIS...WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE MOST UNSTABLE.
ANOTHER THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ON SATURATED GROUNDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED...BY STAYING UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUESTED.

NOLES