Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, January 23, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT THE RAIN THREAT
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO
FAYETTEVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS PRIOR TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF A MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES INCREASING
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC THURSDAY

AREA 1...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...80
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...30

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK.  PROBABILITIES ARE IN
PERCENT.  SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER
WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA