Damaging Wind in Mississippi, July 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
245 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION YESTERDAY...MORE
APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING NEARLY DAILY THIS WEEK AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S DURING THE PERIOD. THIS CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IN
COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS...AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DAILY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. MODELS FORECAST WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TROUGH...
WITH THE MOST POTENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS KEEP THE AIRMASS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PWS HOVERING AROUND 2 INCH TODAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTER PERHAPS SOME DRYING TAKING PLACE ON TUESDAY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE THE SHEAR AXIS AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER SHOWRTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...RATHER HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EACH DAY...A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAINING NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WILL REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW...

MCB 93/73/93/73 5231  BTR 93/73/93/74 4131
MSY 93/76/93/76 5231  GPT 93/74/93/74 5242

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

11

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-231200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...

.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A FEW
OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.HEAT...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.ACTIONS...
NONE AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
1218 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0607 PM    NEW LKFRNT ARPT           LA   MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND
07/21/02   ORLEANS                        GUST OF 40 KNOTS REPORTED
                                          BY NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT
                                          AIRPORT ASOS.

0630 PM    HARAHAN                   LA   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   JEFFERSON                      THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
                                          DOWNED SEVERAL TREES
                                          REPORTED BY JEFFERSON
                                          PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0630 PM    DESTREHAN                 LA   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   ST. CHARLES                    THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
                                          DOWNED A LARGE TREE
                                          REPORTED BY ST. CHARLES
                                          EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS.