Hail in Minnesota, May 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A POTENT BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.  CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FIRE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN.
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.  THE
MODELS PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH THIS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST TWO FORECAST CYCLES.  WILL CONTINUE THIS
TREND IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  HOWEVER...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY NOT MAKE IT
THAT FAR SOUTH...CONVECTION WILL FIRE FURTHER NORTH...AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST RATHER DIFFICULT TO SURMISE DUE TO THE LOW SIGNAL OF THE
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.  NO REAL ORGANIZED
FORCING...BUT INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO CAPPING
MECHANISM.  WILL CONTINUE BLANKET CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A RESULT WITH NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT DISCERNIBLE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AS
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

.LSE...NONE.

KRC

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-262300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

HAZARD - A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

TIMING - LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LOCATION - NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION - SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN THE
MEAN TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAY TIME
WARMING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM ANY
STORMS IS LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER INFORMATION - SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCHESTER TO
BLACK RIVER FALLS LINE.

RRS