Drought in Michigan, September 1 to 30, 2002

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON LABOR DAY.

DEW POINTS ARE NOW SLIDING BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
UNDER INFLUENCE OF TURBULENT MIXING. /EXCEPTIONS ARE CLOSE TO LAKES
ERIE...ST CLAIR...AND HURON WHERE LOW 60S DEW POINTS OBSERVED./ WITH
A LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING STILL
LIKELY TO SEE MARINE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE LAKES. CONSEQUENCES OF THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE
TWO-FOLD TONIGHT...FIRST WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
UP...PARTICULARLY DTW ZONE...AND SECOND TO SET UP FOG POTENTIAL ONCE
AGAIN. MESOETA SURFACE CPDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT STILL WITH HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IN PLACE...MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG WARRANTED.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR TOMORROW. DISAGREEMENT NOTED AMONG
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. E.G....MAV GUIDANCE AT
FNT...82...ETA MOS...88...AND ETA 2 M...90. THIS LOOKS TO BE DUE TO
AVN PUSHING SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB AIR INTO CWA FROM SOUTHEAST...
WHILE ETA PUSHES WARMER AIR FROM WEST. FEEL THAT HIGHS TOMORROW
SHOULD BE AT LEAST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY MOST LOCALES.
WILL FOLLOW ETA MOS GUIDANCE HERE...BUMPING UP DTW TEMPERATURE BY 4
DEGREES OR SO.

WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES JUST SOUTH OF CWA ON MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH BRINGS UPTICK IN MOISTURE. FORCING WITH SYSTEM IS QUITE
WEAK WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOTED AND NO JET
SUPPORT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 30 PERCENT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA FOR
MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM 2C OVER SUNDAY...SETTING STAGE FOR
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS
EXPECTED WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
BONA FIDE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES CWA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE
IS IMPRESSIVE WITH FRONT...ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA. JET SUPPORT WITH FRONT WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE
EITHER. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED...

IN THE MEAN...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH MICHIGAN COVERING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE
DRY...COMFORTABLE MID-WEEK WEATHER. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...RETURN
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
MRF MOVES A UPPER LEVEL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY THEN DEEPENS THE WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ETA-XX /TO DIFFERING DEGREES/ MAINTAIN RIDGE
ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND
TOWARD THE LATTER THREE MODELS AND MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

.DTX...NONE.

OKEEFE