Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, September 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE PRECIP
CHANCES AND TEMPS.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST MN...EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN THIS MORNING.  PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS KEYING UP THE POSSIBLITY OF HEAVY RAINS OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER INDICATED...NOT ALL INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSRA
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVED INTO WESTERN MN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  TSRA WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE MOIST THETA-E AXIS AND
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOIST TOUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

BY AFTERNOON...MODELS PROGGED THE THETA-E AXIS INTO CENTRAL MN...AND
OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING.  TSRA
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...AND DIMINISH OVER
WESTERN MN THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA LABOR DAYS...THE POPS WILL BE
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMP TODAY TRICKY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND THE AFFECTS
OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  MAX/MIN TEMPS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE BASED ON THE STRENGTHEN OF THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

.MSP...NONE.
JVM

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-011600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
440 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THE
AREA IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA TO STAPLES
TO MORA...TO RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH IN WISCONSIN.  OTHER CITIES
INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK ARE THE TWIN CITIES...ST. CLOUD...
REDWOOD FALLS...MANKATO...CAMBRIDGE...ALBERT LEA...AND IN
WISCONSIN...HUDSON...EAU CLAIRE AND DURAND.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRENGTHEN...AND BECOME
SEVERE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS IN THESE AREAS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.
ALL INTERESTS SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

MBK