Blizzard and Winter Storm in Michigan, March 9 to 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
351 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2002

AS OF 19Z 988 MB SURFACE BOMB WAS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FRONT IS
TRUCKING ALONG AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS SO IT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY
ABOUT 6 PM LOCAL TIME. FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EASTERN COUNTIES...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND NORTH. IN
ADDITION...INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR W/NW FLOW FAVORED
AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BLAST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF PASSAGE. STRONG CAA TO MIX DOWN
50 KNOT WINDS PRESENT ON THE KAPX VWP AT AROUND 3000 FEET AGL AND
MODELED 850 MB WINDS IN THE SAME RANGE ALL NIGHT (CREATING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SOME SPOTS). SO CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH
AND BLIZZARD WARNING CENTRAL AND NORTH LOOKS ON TRACK. LAKE EFFECT
EXPECTED TO KICK IN THIS EVENING AS WELL AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
QUICKLY RISE TO NEAR 8000 FEET AND 850 MB TEMPS CRASH TO NEAR -20C
BY 06Z (YIELDING IMPRESSIVE DELTA TS OF BETWEEN 20 AND 22). MEAN
WIND DIRECTION SETTLES IN ABOUT 280 TO 290 DEGREES AND 900/700 MB RH
AOA 80% ALL NIGHT. THE BEST FETCH OF OVER 100 MILES IS OVER CHIPPEWA
COUNTY. ALL THAT BEING SAID...LIMITING FACTORS ARE THAT SURFACE/850
MB WINDS PRETTY STRONG LIMITING ORGANIZED BAND DEVELOPMENT (AT OR
NEAR 50 KNOTS ALL NIGHT) PLUS 850 MB TEMPS BORDER ON BEING ON THE
TOO COLD SIDE FOR LARGE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH (-21 BY 12Z). EXPECT 4 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW OVER CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER FAVORED
AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER (HENCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY DROPPING TO BELOW A QUARTER MILE) AND 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS COME DOWN SOME AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT AND CAA IS NOT AS STRONG. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALL TO ABOUT 4000 FEET N LOWER AND 6000 FEET ACROSS E UPPER BY 00Z
MONDAY. 900/700 MB RH REALLY FALLS OFF OVER N LOWER TO 50% BY 18Z
AND 30% BY 00Z MON. GREATER MOISTURE AND HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVER N LOWER EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CHIPPEWA
COUNTY (BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT PIN DOWN THE DETAILS). MEANWHILE ACROSS N LOWER...WNW
FLOW FAVORED COUNTIES EXPECTED TO YIELD ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES.
ELSEWHERE AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED. WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUST TO 40 MPH STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN SNOW SHOWER AREAS
WHERE VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE BEST. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
EVENING SNOW SHOWERS WITH SUFFICIENT DRY AIR MOVING IN AFTER THAT TO
END ACTIVITY AFTER THAT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT ON STRENGTH
(AVN 1008 MB VERSUS ETA 1012 MB BY 00Z TUE) AND AMOUNT OF QPF. ETA
ALSO SPLITS THE ENERGY INTO TWO PIECES WITH ONE AREA OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA. REGARDLESS WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND NOT QUITE
AS HIGH SOUTH. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WE END UP BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. SO AFTER A
LINGERING CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW IT SHOULD TURN OUT PARTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
ANOTHER WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE DEPRIVED SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MRF/CANADIAN/NAVY NOGAPS MOVE THIS SYSTEM BY TO
OUR NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A FARTHER SOUTH AND COLDER SOLUTION.
WILL KEEP IT GENERAL FOR NOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
UPPER PENINSULA AND CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW N LOWER.
ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAVY NOGAPS NOSE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
AND WORD IT MOSTLY CLOUDY (MRF IS THE OUTLIER AND MOVES A WEAK WAVE
OUT OF THE PLAINS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY). THE END OF THE WEEK
LOOKS INTERESTING WITH A MUCH STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
SO A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SOUTH IS IN ORDER. A BIT
COOLER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD END UP NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.

THANKS TO MQT...DTX AND GRR FOR COORDINATION.

.APX...BLIZZARD WARNING...TONIGHT...MIZ008-015>023-025>028
       HIGH WIND WARNING...TONIGHT...MIZ024-029>036-041-042.

SULLIVAN

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
122 PM EST SAT MAR 9 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 PM    MANISTEE                  MI   WIND DAMAGE
03/09/02   MANISTEE                       TREES DOWNED BY NON-
                                          CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS

JZ