High Wind in Ohio, March 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
915 AM EST SAT MAR 9 2002

14Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STRONG COLD FRONT...TRAILING FROM AN
AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVR NRN WISCONSIN...SOUTH INTO WRN
IL...THEN INTO THE BOOT HEEL OF MO...AND FINALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
MS RIVER VLY.  THIS FRONT WAS ASSOCD WITH A VIGOROUS H5 S/WV OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VLY.  BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PIVOT ACRS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PSBL SVR TSTMS AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH WINDS.

CURRENT FCST IS WELL IN HAND...SO WILL UPDATE MAINLY TO TWEAK
WORDING.  MESOETA CONTINUES TO BRING COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN CWFA
AROUND 18Z...ACRS DAY AND CVG AROUND 20Z...AND THROUGH CMH AND PMH
AROUND 22Z.  WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S...SBCAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL LIFT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/WV...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN THIS
LINE...BUT WHERE THEY OCCUR...THEY COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS AS
925 MB TO 850 MB WINDS ARE FCST TO BE WITHIN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE.
TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...STEEP ISENTROPIC SURFACES ARE FCST JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT IN WHICH 45 TO 50 KT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC FOR ABOUT A 2 HOUR PERIOD AFTER FROPA.
HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTN AS WELL AS A SVR WX OUTLOOK.

.ILN...HIGH WIND WARNING ENTIRE CWFA TODAY.

HICKMAN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-092300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 AM EST SAT MAR 9 2002

...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.  THIS LINE IS FORECAST TO REACH EASTERN INDIANA AND
WESTERN OHIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY EVENING.  DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS...SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED.  LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

HICKMAN