Winter Storm in Maine, April 28 to 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
300 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER LATE SEASON SNOWFALL TO THE
FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL MAINE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND UP
NORTH. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY...AND
THEN TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN BUT WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN SINGLE
NUMBERS AND TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW QUICKLY IN ALL
BUT COASTAL ZONES. ALSO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY DRIVEN. BOTH ETA/AVN SHOWING INITIAL HEAVIER QPF IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EVENING AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS IN GULF OF MAINE AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER QPF MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS PRIMARY SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. LIKELY WILL SEE SNOW EARLY IN EVENING CHANGE TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER AT NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION GETS LIGHTER THEN CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT AREA OF HEAVIER QPF MOVES THROUGH...THEN BACK
TO RAIN SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIGHTER LATER MONDAY MORNING.
WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY. WILL GO WITH ADVISORY IN CENTRAL AREAS
SINCE COMPACTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DECREASES
DURING MIDDLE OF EVENT. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY FORECAST FOR SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY. MRF IS SHOWING A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MRF SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSTANT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THAN THE
GEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MRF/GEM SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EAST
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY BOTH DAYS.

COASTAL WATERS:
WILL GO WITH GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.CAR...WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
       ZNS 3>6-10>11-15>17-31>32.
       GALE WARNING

MIGNONE