Tornado and Hail in Virginia, April 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
300 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

SHORT TERM (TNGT THROUGH MON NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS THIS PACKAGE WILL BE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTENROON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT SPC TO ISSUE
WATCHES COVERING MUCH OF OUR CWA W/IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. EARLIER
RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR CWA. SATL IMGRY SHOWS CLEARING
SWEEPING EASTWARD AND WITH TEMPERATURE WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S
ALONG WITH SFC DEW PTS IN M/U 60 RANGE...EXPECT CONTINUED
DESTABLILATION OF AIRMASS TO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INSTABILITY LINES TO OUR WEST...ONE OVER CNTRL OH
THE OTHER OVER ERN KY/SWRN WV...WILL HELP FOCUS LINES OF STORMS. EHI
FROM ETA 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MAX OUT AROUND 3.5...INDICATING
POTENTAL TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH
WINDS AS 800-500 WINDS ARE IN 50-70 KT RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT IN THE OH VALLEY WILL SWEEP THROUGH BUT
LEAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (3-5KFT). SO KEPT A MSTLY CLDY
FRCST FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS FROM MOS LOOK REASONABLE SINCE NOT MUCH
REAL COLD AIR TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT.

ON MON...EARLY MORNING UPR LVL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND 12Z...THEN THINGS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT...BUT WITH COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT...WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THEN INDICATED BY MOS.

MON NIGHT...ETA MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN KEEPING A CLOUD
DECK IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MINS UP. HOWEVER...THINK THAT
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE FOR
MON NIGHT...BUT NO FREZ/FROST EXPECTED. -SMZ

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...TUE THRU SUN...
HI PRES RDG MOVES E OFF CST WITH WAA OVR AREA TUE. CLD FNT AND LO
PRES AREA MOVE ACRS CWA WED BRINGING CHC RW-. FNTL ZONE STALLS
ACROSS VA/MD INTO THU WITH ANOTHER LO PRES CENTER MOVING ALONG IT.
LO PROGGED ACRS CWA THU BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD RAIN. LOW
MOVES OFF CST BY THU NIGHT. ANOTHER LO PRES AREA OR WAVE ON THE FNT
MOVES ACRS THE VA CAPES FRI MORNING AND THEN HI PRES BUILDS IN SAT
AND SUN. -BMW

SVR TSTM WATCH EXPD SOON. FLOOD WATCH WRN ZONES WILL 330 PM.

.LWX...
DC...SCA TIDAL PTMC.
MD...SCA CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL PTMC.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

WATSON

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-281700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1130 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2002

...POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY INCLUDING
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...MOST OF MARYLAND... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VIRGINIA... AND WEST VIRGINIA.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND THE PEAK TIME OF THE THREAT WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 3 PM UNTIL 8 PM EDT. STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST...SO
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS STORMS APPROACH. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA.

WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT TODAYS FAST MOVING STORMS WILL MINIMIZE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO TAKE
PLACE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER TODAY. SOME
PONDING OF WATER WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL SHARP
RISES WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SMZ/BMW