Damaging Winds in Louisiana, May 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

ZONE BREAKUP WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON ONGOING CONVECTION AT
TIME OF ZONE ISSUANCE. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE FIRST
PERIOD POPS. THE SECOND PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHAT HAPPENS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA.
THIS FRONT HAS NOT MOVED VERY MUCH SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BOTH THE
AVN AND ETA MOVE THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT. OLD
BOUNDARY MAY FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AS IT WAVES BACK
AND FORTH OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND
SHOULD MAINLY BE FUELED BY HEATING...HARD TO TIME AND TRACK
SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST IN THE UPPER FLOW...AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THIS TREND HANDLED VERY
WELL...AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST.

NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SUBTROPICAL LOW AFFECTING THE
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. JUST AS
PROBLEMATIC IS THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND FINALLY INTO THE EXTREME
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND GET
CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL VARY
GREATLY UPON WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THESE SYSTEMS. WITH THIS
SAID...WILL KEEP ONGOING CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY AND SEE
HOW LATER RUNS OF THE MODELS HANDLE THE SITUATION.

FOR TONIGHT...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. THIS FEATURE WAS NOT VERY WELL INITIALIZED BY
THE ETA...BUT WAS HANDLED SLIGHTLY BETTER BY THE AVN. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO LEND A HAND TO THE
DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINMENT OF STORMS. CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
ARE INDICATING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THAT REGION AND STORMS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. POPS
TONIGHT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 65/89/66/89/66 32222
MEI 61/89/64/90/65 12222

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
229 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    3N BENTONIA               MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/26/02   YAZOO                          PUBLIC REPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
243 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    BEE LAKE                  MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/26/02   HOLMES                         PUBLIC REPORT

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED
FARTHER EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS GENERALLY WEST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO ROLLING FORK
AND RULEVILLE MISSISSIPPI LINE...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD ON MEMORIAL DAY.   THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TEAM UP WITH SEVERAL INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.

STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
547 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0535 PM    5E ROSEDALE               MS   WIND DAMAGE
05/26/02   BOLIVAR                        BOLIVAR EOC REPORTS ROOFS
                                          BLOWN OFF OF BUILDINGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 PM    1N CLINTON                MS   WIND DAMAGE
05/26/02   HINDS                          LARGE LIMBS DOWN REPORTED
                                          BY NWS SPOTTER.