Damaging Wind in Kentucky, July 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002

MAIN FCST CONCERN TO ADDRESS IS THE CHANCE OF PCPN. VSBL SAT PIX/SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SE ACROSS SRN IN/SRN
OH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OH...TAIL OF THIS WAVE PUSHES INTO KY TONIGHT
HELPING TO BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ALL THIS SPELLS LIKELY POPS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES RUNNING OVER 2 INCHES HVY
RAINS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE AN FFA AS 3HR FFG VALUES ARE
RUNNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES.

WITH ITS SUPERIOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE
ETA/MESOETA SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM N TO S TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN SRN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WEAK CAA
WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

DESPITE HIGH POPS GENERATED BY GUIDANCE...NOT EXCITED ABOUT CHANCES
FOR PCPN WED NIGHT WITH NE FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND REGION
UNDER WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER POPS WED NIGHT
WITH GREATEST VALUES IN SRN ZONES WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THETA-E RIDGE.

STRONG UPPER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SAT PIX ACROSS SRN
SASKATCHEWAN...MOVES TOWARD THE REGION THUR...SO WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES OF TSRA GOING.

FOR FRIDAY...AVN/MRF AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN SWINGING UPPER TROF
THROUGH MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MRF/AVN SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER TROF COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN...WHICH
IS LINE WITH 08/12Z ECMWF. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CHANCE OF PCPN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN TROF PASSES IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ZIPPING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AND WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES.

.JKL...NONE.

HYSELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002

LOOKS LIKE A CHANGE TO WETTER WEATHER AS UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGES
MORE TO A TROFF ALOFT INSTEAD OF THE RIDGE. MODELS ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CHC POPS TODAY AND LIKELY POPS
TONIGHT AND WED. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED ON TIMING OF FROPA. I HAVE
SOME CONCERN WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES THAT ARE ADVERTISED BY THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NOT READY TO GO OUT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WITH PWS AROUND 2.20 INCHES WILL MAKE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE ZONES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
AFTER 48 HRS WITH THE AVN BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A
SFC WAVE AND SPREADING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA FRI. IM NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN THE ZONES.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...PC TODAY WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH (50%) AND LOWEST
SOUTH...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT WILL GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLE WITH GOOD OMEGAS...THETA-E MAX IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA...PWS UP AROUND 2.20 AND GOOD DIV ALOFT. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
FURTHER MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH
THE EVENING PACKAGE. FOR WED WILL GO WITH CHC POPS NORTH AND LIKELY
S AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS WED NIGHT. IM DEBATING ON
WHAT TO DO WITH THU AND THU NIGHT. MAYBE LOW CHC POP THU DAY BUT NO
POPS THU NIGHT.

EXTENDED (FRI-MON)....NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. AS
STATED ABOVE...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF FRIDAY AS THE AVN IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAT THE EXTENDED ETA IN BRINGING PCPN BACK INTO KY.
TEMPS MAY BE JUST A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE IN THE ZONES RIGHT
NOW AND MAY LOWER BUT ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO.

GFE/IFPS...DATA BASE WAS RECONSTRUCTED YESTERDAY AND LOOKS LIKE IT
STILL NEEDS SOME SMOOTHING AND TWEAKING. PLAN ON TWEAKING POPS AND
TEMPS HERE AND THERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA.

ETA/NGM AND AVN MOS SIMILAR AND DONT PLAN ON STRAYING FAR.

WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER SDFOZFJKL. FURTHER COORDINATION
AND CHAT ROOM COORDINATION WELCOME.

.JKL...NONE.

HALL