Drought in Kansas, May 1 to 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT TUE APR 30 2002

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS.

SATL/UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING AMPLIFIED/STAGNANT PATTERN FROM ERN
PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. ANALYSIS HAS SURFACE PUSHING THROUGH AREA
AT THIS TIME WITH 850 MB FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. ALSO A DECENT
BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 700 MB SHOWING UP TO NORTH OF AREA AS WELL. AT
JET LVL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT 850 MB...MODELS WERE 1-3C TOO
COOL WITH AVN THE CLOSEST OVER AREA. ETA WAS DOING THE BEST AT THE
SFC. HWVR...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL WITH LOW LVL MSTR/CLDS WITH
THE ETA THE CLOSEST TO REALITY. BASED ON BETTER DEPICTION AT LOW
LVLS...SATL...AND INITIAL ANALYSIS...WL GO WITH THE ETA FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

FOR TON/WED...WEAK JET DYNAMICS AROUND DURING THE NIGHT WITH STRONGER
JET DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY. ALSO STRONG S/W MOVING IN
DURING THE NIGHT WITH STRONG INFLOW/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WITH
FRONT BLASTING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. ALSO LOOKS TO BE DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT SO SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AT LEAST WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. ALSO THE ETA SHOWS GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FM 06Z TIL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AROUND THE 310K
LAYER.

PROBLEM THROUGH ENTIRE TIME IS THAT SOUNDINGS/MODELS SAY THERE WILL
BE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE LOW LEVELS. HWVR...MODELS LOOK A
LITTLE DRY BASED ON UPR AIR ANALYSIS. IF MODELS DO PAN OUT WHICH
LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO CURRENT SATL...WILL DEFINITELY HAVE DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IF LARGE AREA OF PRECIP DOES GO TO THE NORTH AS PROGGED...WILL
GET ENHANCED UPSLOPE AND REALLY SOCK THE AREA IN...AND CAUSE TEMPS TO
GO NOWHERE. IF MODELS ARE WRONG...WILL HAVE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP/THUNDER IN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GREATEST CHANCE AND
INSTABILITY IN NRN AND ERN SECTIONS. WITH WINDS AND CLDS...WL GO NEAR
TO ABV GUIDANCE TONIGHT. CLOUDS...PCPN...FOG...AND CAA SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS BLO NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

FOR WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND SOME DRYING SET IN. POSSIBLE
WITH LIGHT WIND FIELD AND NOT CLOUDS...COULD GET SOME FOG IN DURING
THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO GO NEAR TO BLO GUIDANCE FOR MINS. WL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WIND FIELD EARLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL TEND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABV
GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE MAXES.

FOR THU NIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND. WILL TEND TO GO
NEAR TO ABV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MAXES AGAIN.

IN THE EXTENDED...AT 12Z THIS MORNING...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL.
HWVR...THEY WERE TOO FAR EAST WITH FEATURES IN ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S.
...AND WERE ALSO NOT STRONG ENOUGH WITH THEM. MODELS ARE SMLR WITH
THEIR SOLNS AND TRENDS. THEY ALL TEND TO KICK OUT A PIECE OF THE WRN
TROF...AND THEY HOLD THE TROF BACK FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN. THAT MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING CURRENT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE FAST...AND LIKE THE FURTHER WEST POSN OF SRN STREAM
TROF.

LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
FROM SUNDAY INTO TUE. ALSO THINK THAT BOUNDARY OR BOUNDERIES THAT
SEEM TO MOVE THROUGH AREA ARE TOO FAR SOUTH GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT INDUCING A STRONG LEE TROF. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH CHANCE OF PCPN AND NEAR TO ABV GUIDANCE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MAXES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER