Hail in Kansas, June 14, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2002

...FOR TODAY CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND DAILY TEMPERATURES...

THE 12Z DIAGNOSTICS SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW OVER WISCONSIN AND
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. IN THE WEST,
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO IDAHO
PRODUCING A NORTHWEST FLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS COLORADO INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS. LAST NIGHTS MULTICELL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND HAS NOW
WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. FARTHER
NORTH IN THE HIGH PLAINS INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
STARTING TO FOCUS LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO PRODUCING CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER IDAHO AND WYOMING. AS THESE FEATURES COME
TOGETHER OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT SHOULD SEE DECENT
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH A FEW SUPER CELLS POSSIBLE EARLY ON BEFORE
THE SYSTEM BECOMES MULTICELLULAR. SPC IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
WITHOUT EVEN LOOKING AT THE WORLD OF COMPUTER MODELS.

SPEAKING OF THE MODELS, THEY APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN
TODAY AND WILL GENERALLY BE USED FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WITH
THE ETA PREFERRED FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS
DUE TO ITS MORE DETAILED TERRAIN.

WILL LOOK FOR EARLY POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND TRACK SOUTHEAST CLIPPING MY
FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTENSIFIES TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP FOCUS THE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FARTHER
NORTH WHERE THEY WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL THE
MODELS DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
THIS APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE AND WILL PLAY THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK
ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
GO ABOVE THE MOS FOR POPS IN THIS AREA. WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN PLACE SOME LINGERING ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD LAST INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL PLAY IT TO WIND DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES OFF INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. DUE TO SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION DO NOT
EXPECT ANY HEAVY RAIN PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT REACHES THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER OKLAHOMA.

FOR TEMPERATURES, CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEFORE SUNRISE WILL MODERATE LOW TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WILL LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE AND WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT ON
SUNDAY TO UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

DAYS 3-7...
MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER/NEAR WESTERN KS AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF PCPN GOING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS SHOWING THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS A
MORE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. 7H
TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM TO 14-15C OVER WESTERN KS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
SHOULD INITIALLY PROVIDE A CAP OVER THE WESTERN CWA MID WEEK. WITH
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE MID WEEK AND GIVEN THE INSTAB PROGGED ALOFT
HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PCPN BACK INTO THE FORECAST OVER THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA  LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE WORK WEEK WILL KEEP THE WARMING TREND GOING.
BRINGING TEMPS BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MID 90S STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   56  74  58  79 /   0  70  60  20
GCK   56  74  57  80 /  20  70  60  20
EHA   57  78  59  84 /  50  20  70  20
LBL   57  76  59  84 /  50  20  70  20
HYS   55  74  58  78 /   0  70  60  20
P28   58  74  62  79 /   0  70  60  30

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/BURGERT