Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...

BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AT EARLY AFTERNOON TWO DISTINCTIVE AREAS WERE BEING
WATCHED. THE FIRST WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AREA WERE IN THE 70S.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THE CAP WAS
NOT AS STRONG AS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. AS TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AND THE CAP CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN, AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS ON THE
SURFACE FRONT. AT MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAD FIRED ALONG THE
FRONT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND A FEW HAD ALREADY REACHED SEVERE
LEVELS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET, ESPECAILLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. AROUND MIDNIGHT
THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE KANSAS CITY AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
AROUND MEDICINE LODGE. FROM THEN ON, MOST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH IT STALLING
OUT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WILL BE INCREASING THE POPS TO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT AND EVEN MAKE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR THAT
AREA. SO CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE WHATEVER FALLS.

ONCE THE TROF AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WILL BE BACK
TO OUR SUMMER PATTERN, AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY, WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS. SO CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THURSDAY,
THE AVIATION MODEL IS INDICATING THAT WE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THAT WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THEN.

FCSTID =   ELDER/20
ICT   71  89  68  94 /  50  20  10  10
HUT   70  90  68  94 /  50  10  10  10
EWK   70  89  68  94 /  50  10  10  10
EQA   71  89  68  94 /  50  20  10  10
WLD   72  89  69  94 /  60  30  10  10
RSL   69  90  66  94 /  40   0   5  10
GBD   69  90  66  94 /  40   5  10  10
SLN   70  90  67  94 /  40   5   5  10
MPR   70  89  67  94 /  50  10  10  10
CFV   73  88  69  92 /  70  40  10  10
CNU   73  88  69  92 /  70  30  10  10
K88   73  88  69  92 /  70  30  10  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-290230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AT EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 5 PM...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS OF 60 TO 70
MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. DESPITE THE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM ANY STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL STREAM OR URBAN FLOODING TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL