High Wind in Iowa, May 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

TSRA RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVR NRN MO OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
AREA OF LIFT AND WAA.  THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER ERN NEB ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WITH GOOD LOW LVL INFLOW.  THIS WHOLE AREA WILL
LIFT INTO IA THIS MORNING.  FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVR CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NRN
KS INTO CEN MO WILL LIFT NORTH INTO IA.  WARM AIR OVER RUNNING WILL
KEEP RAINFALL GOING AND WITH THE GULF OPENED UP HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.  QFP VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.25 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.  WE OPTED AGAINST ANY HEADLINES SINCE RIVERS ARE IN HAND
AND SOILS APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN OVER A
24 HOUR PERIOD.  THE MAIN PRECIP WILL BE A STRATO-FORM RAINFALL SO I
OPTED FOR NON CONVECTIVE WORDING THOUGH THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE AT SEEING ANY SUN I
DONT SEE MUCH OF A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  ONE CAVEAT TO
THIS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON LENDING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. ANY
SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY OCCUR WILL BE RESTRICTED ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW.  THIS WOULD PLACE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWA.  I WILL MENTION WORDING FOR WIND
AND HAIL...WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT THOUGH CONFIDENCE WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...UNLESS WE SEE SOME SUN.

THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO THE THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
THOUGH WE WONT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE CLEAR UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES EAST...SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY.  THE START OF THE WORKWEEK
SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS A BIT TOO COOL SO I WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES FOR THE FIRST 3 PERIODS.

.DSM...NONE

FAB