Damaging Winds in Alabama, May 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2002

CURRENTLY: IN THE SE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW...THE SE COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS DEVELOPING FAIRLY EARLY TODAY...WITH A CU FIELD
FORMING OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL FL BIG BEND. STILL NO SIGN
OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO THE N AND IS PARKED OVER N CENTRAL GA AND
AL. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS CONTINUE TO RUN OUT OF THE SE AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS.

MODELS/ZFP: LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
...AS THE DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO FOR WEEKS WILL FINALLY BE FORCED TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
SW AS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP AN UPPER TROF OVER THE E U.S. EARLY
IN THE WEEK...WITH A TRUE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY NIGHT...AND A RESPITE FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO FOLLOW FOR
MID WEEK. AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE FRONT WILL PASS WELL TO THE N OF THE REGION...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
POPS BY LATE MONDAY. IN THE SHORTER TERM...SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE THERMO THAN
TODAY. THUS...PLAN ON LOWERING THE POPS DOWN TO 10 PERCENT.

MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT MAY SEE
CONDITIONS APPROACH SCEC LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

FIRE WX: WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY...DISPERSIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT
AT THIS TIME...TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FIRE WX WATCH.

EXTENDED: THE UPPER TROF WHICH WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SE EARLY IN
THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE BY MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP AND A RETURN
TO HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TLH  69 93 68 91 11-2
PFN  73 90 73 89 11-2
DHN  70 93 71 89 21-3
ABY  70 94 70 90 21-3
VLD  69 93 68 92 21-3

.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

GOULD