Hail in Kansas, May 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

WAA CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WITH THE HELP OF A SHORTWAVE...TS HAS
ERUPTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT TS TO BE ONGOING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ON AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH. THE PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.5 INCHES AND GREATER. MID AND UPPER FLOW ARE PROGGED
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AS WELL WHICH MAY CAUSE TRAINING
OF CELLS. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

I ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LATEST MODELS
PROG A GLANCING BLOW BY THE MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ESPECIALLY THE ETA AS IT DIGS IT SOUTH TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN ACROSS OK. KEPT A CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE FRONT AND MAY STILL GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ELEVATED TS.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. THE QUICK LOOK AT THE
ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND A LITTLE
LONGER THAN WHAT THE AVN SHOWS...SLOWING DOWN MOISTURE RETURN.
EVENTUALLY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LEE TROUGHING WILL
RETURN. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.

.TOP...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
       KSZ010>012-022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059

WOLTERS

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLOODING
RAINS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM MARYSVILLE TO ABILENE...WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED DURING THE PAST WEEK.

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED NORTH BY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS HIGHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH MAY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE TIMES...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TOPEKA.