Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE WARM FRONT HAD SHIFTED NORTH OF THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA (CFA)
AT 1830Z. MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WE EXPECT MOST OF THESE
STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CFA THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE.

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CFA WITH A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR STORMS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SLOW AS
IT REACHES THE TENNESSEE BORDER. A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALL A FEW
DEGREES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL EXIT THE SOUTHWEST FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. RETURN MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
THE CFA AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
PRESENTLY WE EXPECT ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
LOUISVILLE BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.

.SDF...NONE.

JA

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-012030-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE MODERATE RISK COVERS THE COUNTIES ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER FROM BRANDENBURG TO BEAVER DAM...WHICH IS LOCATED IN
OHIO COUNTY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REST
OF CENTRAL CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.  LATER THIS EVENING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS HAMPERED SURFACE HEATING. THIS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020800-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE MODERATE RISK COVERS AN
AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEXINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT.
...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE STORMS.

LATER THIS EVENING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-020800-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE MODERATE RISK COVERS AN
AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORGANTOWN TO LEXINGTON. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT.
...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT FORM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THESE STORMS.

LATER THIS EVENING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...AND THE INTERNET
FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN