Damaging Winds and Lightning Strikes in Indiana, June 15, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 PM EST SAT JUN 15 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...

THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE STILL MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODELS NEARLY AGREE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING SOUTHEAST
AND PASS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WHILE IT WILL NOT PASS BY THE END
OF THE EVENING...FEEL LOSS OF HEATING WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE NUMBER
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER FROM THE AREA TOMORROW.
DECREASE IN DEW POINTS TOMORROW SHOULD KEEP LIFTED INDEXES FROM
BECOMING NEGATIVE. MODEL POPS ARE LOW. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR
LAST NIGHTS LOWS...AND THAT IS ABOUT WHAT GUIDANCE INDICATES. TODAYS
MAV HAS WARMED A BIT TOWARD FWC AND MET FOR TOMORROW. THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SO WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAV
AND FWC.

.IND...NONE.
DS