Tornado and Flash Flooding in Kansas, June 15, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
344 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING INDICATED A JET STREAK MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. AVN AND ETA MODELS BOTH TAKE THIS JET STREAK EASTWARD AND BY
18Z HAVE THE LEADING NOSE OF THIS STREAK INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS JET SHOULD ASSIST IN DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THAT LOCATION. MORNING DEWPOINTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO ARE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING
WITH TIME...THE AIR MASS SHOULD ONLY GET MORE MOIST. SPC HAS MADE
THIS AREA THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AND CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK.

AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IT SHOULD TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE JET STREAK SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...SO
THINK THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THERE. FOR US...WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE EDGE AND THINK OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. THAT IS WHY THE CHANCE CATEGORIES
THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY WE STAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER THAT TYPE SCENARIO...ANY
BOUNDARY THAT COULD SET-UP FROM THE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD GENERATE SOMETHING. SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE 20% POPS. NORTHWEST FLOW STAYS WITH US INTO MONDAY.

ALL MODELS HOLDING CONSISTENT WITH BREAKING THE WESTERN U.S RIDGE
DOWN BY MID WEEK AND MAKING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN.
THAT IS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...DOLD-DRUM HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE. UNDER THIS TYPE SYSTEM WE WILL SEE
A LOW PRESSURE TROF ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR US. AS PER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED PERIODS
DRY.

FCSTID = 20/ELDER
ICT   82  61  83  62 /  30  30  20  20
HUT   82  61  83  60 /  30  20  20  20
EWK   82  61  82  61 /  30  20  20  20
EQA   82  61  83  62 /  30  30  20  20
WLD   83  62  84  63 /  30  30  20  20
RSL   82  60  82  58 /  40  20  20  20
GBD   82  60  82  59 /  40  20  20  20
SLN   81  60  81  60 /  30  20  20  20
MPR   82  61  82  61 /  30  20  20  20
CFV   82  61  84  62 /  20  30  20  20
CNU   81  59  82  62 /  20  30  20  20
K88   81  59  82  62 /  20  30  20  20

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
1031 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 AM    4NW MILBERGER             KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/15/02   RUSSELL

1001 AM    6 NE HOISINGTON           KS   .75 INCH HAIL
06/15/02   BARTON

MEB

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093-152230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN 2
PM AND 10 PM...

AN AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FORM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
GREATEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THROUGH THE DAY.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT A LARGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS MAY IMPACT AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...AFTER 2 PM. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

CO