Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 15, 2002

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

BUSY WITH GRIDS THIS AFTN SO DISCUSSION WILL BE SHORT. PSBL SIG SVR
WX EVENT...MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BEGINNING UPSTREAM
IN CO AND KS AND WILL HEAD SEWD THRU FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TNGT. LIKELY POPS ALL ZNS AND SVR WORDING MENTIONED. BREAK ON SUNDAY
AS ATMO RECOVERS WITH SOME MOUNTAIN STORMS TO THE W AND NW...HEADING
SEWD LATE SUN AFTN AND SUN EVENING. SLGHT CHC TO CHC REASONABLE.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MON AND TUE AS SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW
CONTINUES. FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A SW REGIME WED THRU END OF
WEEK AS TROF BEGINS HEADING INTO PAC NW AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY INTO AREA WITH AXIS E OF FCST AREA. WILL RETAIN SLGHT CHC
POPS FOR WED THRU SAT AT THIS TIME. WARMING TREND INTO MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS PLAUSIBLE. SVR WATCH BEING ISSUED NOW
SO WILL END.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-152300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE SETTING THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
LARGE COMPLEX THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
QUICK ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SD