Damaging Wind in Indiana, July 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002

SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER MOST OF FA AT 06Z BUT CLOUDS FROM EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY.
DEW POINT MAX WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR HOPKINSVILLE AND BOWLING GREEN
NORTHEAST TO NEAR LEXINGTON.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE TIMING AND HOW WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS VERY SIMILAR OUT THROUGH 60 HOURS...BRINGING COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO FA OVERNIGHT THEN INTO TENNESSEE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

TODAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG HEATING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GIVE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS FORM.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST NUMEROUS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS - WHERE THE IMPACT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MICHIGAN WILL BE
GREATEST. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE...PER SPC OUTLOOK. ALSO
THIS IS WHERE MODELS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND QPF. WILL GO
HIGH CHANCE NORTH AND LOWER CHANCE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO FA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY MAX SPREADS ACROSS THE FA AS DOES QPF
MAXIMUM. LIKELY POPS SEEM REASONABLE WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
REACHING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE DAYBREAK.

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO
KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

AFTER A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...UPPER SYSTEM DEPICTED ON BOTH ETA AND
AVN WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD FA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF STATES MOVES NORTHEAST INTO FA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE WARM-UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT GUIDANCE VALUES.

.SDF...NONE.
SCHOLZ