Damaging Wind in Indiana, July 22, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
130 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

FRONT ON SCHEDULE MOVING INTO NWRN WI-CNTL IA-ERN KS. DEWPTS IN MID
70S STILL IN PLACE WITH TEMPS RANGING FRM MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
CWFA. TEMPS IMMEDIATELY DROPPING TO ARND 70 WITH FROPA WITH DWPTS
DROPPING THRU 60S. LN OF STORMS IN WI JUST BARELY CLIPPING BORDER OF
NRN IL WITH A LOT OF DEBRIS IN NRN TIER CNTYS. OUTFLOW SURGING EAST
TWRD RFD WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPS A BIT. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH
TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHUD INHIBIT TEMPS FROM YDA AND THUS HI VALUES
SHUD NOT REACH 105 IN N CENTRAL AND NE IL. WILL THUS ALLOW HEAT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR RFD TO PNT AND ALLOW HEAT WARNING FOR CHI
AREA ALSO TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER HIS LIKELY TO APPROACH 100 ESP IN
METRO CHI TODAY. THIS NOT QUALIFYING FOR WARNING CONTINUATION BUT
STILL WARM AND MUGGY...SO IS NO TIME TO FOREGO PERSONAL PROTECTION
FROM HEAT EXPOSURE YET.

AREA FROM PORTER CNTY IN INDIANA TO FORD CNTY IN NERN IL GOING TO
SEE A LATE IN THE DAY FROPA. QUESTIONABLE ABOUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF TSTMS TODAY IN THAT AREA. IF ENUF SUNSHINE...CUD SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACH 105 THERE TODAY...THUS THAT AREA HAS BORDERLINE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL OPT TO CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY AT LEAST TO
MID AFTN.

FROPA SHUD BE ARND NOONISH FOR RFD AND 1 TO 2 PM FOR CHICAGO AREA
AND 4 TO 5 PM FOR SERN CWFA. TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FNT SHUD
COUNTERACT AND EVEN SET BACK HEAT GAIN TODAY...WITH FROPA DROPPING
DWPTS. LIKELY TO BE CLEARING TNGT RFD-CHI WITH SOME LINGERING TSTMS
IN SERN SECTIONS...THEN CLRG LATE.

TUESDAY A LITTLE CYCLONIC YET E AND S OF RFD WITH LOW LEVEL
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. THIS LIKELY TO CREATE DECENT CU FIELD TUESDAY
FOR ERLY PART OF DAY.

WILL SEE MID OR UPR 80S AT RFD TDA TO AROUND 90 CHI TO LA SALLE AREA
AND PERHAPS LWR 90S IN SERN CWFA WHERE HEAT ADVSY TO CONTINUE.
SIGNIFICANT COOLING TONGT WITH TEMPS IN 60S TO ARND 70 DOWNTOWN CHI.
SHUD SEE ONLY MID 70S ALG LAKESHORE TUESDAY WITH SOME SC/FOG PSBLE
LT TNGT AND ERY TUESDAY ALG LAKEFRONT INTO METRO AREA. NEAR 80
LIKELY AWAY FROM LAKE.

.CHI...HEAT ADVSRY TODAY MAJORITY OF NWRN IN AND FORD AND IROQUOIS
       CNTYS IN NERN IL.

BRUMER

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032>033-039-INZ001>002-010>011-019
-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1200 PM CDT/EST MON JUL 22 2002

FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE TO VALPARAISO.  SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR IN
THIS AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 90S...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THIS AREA WHERE SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

CLOUD DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT/S THUNDERSTORMS OVER
IOWA AND WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTER,
NEWTON, JASPER, AND BENTON COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
FORD AND IROQUOIS IN ILLINOIS. THE HEAT INDEX IN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 105.

MERZLOCK