Hail in Illinois, March 8, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 AM CST FRI MAR 8 2002

NCEP SIDED WITH AVN WHICH IS 3 HOURS SLOWER THAN ETA AND NOT NEARLY
AS DEEP WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SAT. NCEP SIDED WITH ETA
YESTERDAY AND THE DAY BEFORE...BUT A SHIFT TODAY TO AVN WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW
WARM IT GETS TODAY...AND ADDRESSING CONVECTION CHANCES THRU SAT
MORNING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TONIGHT.

WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH OF CWA BY KGBG AND LACON BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT WITH 1006 MB LOW NEAR KDSM. UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS 48 TO
55 WITH DEWPOINTS MID 40S TO AROUND 50. SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 20 MPH WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN IL.
BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER FAR NORTHCENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHCENTRAL IA
LIFTING NE TOWARD WI WITH SHORT WAVE AND NOSE OF 50 KT 850 MB JET.
SCATTTERED CONVECTION CLIPS AREAS MAINLY NW OF IL RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM KPIA/KBMI NORTH AND MOVING NE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN RANTOUL AND KANKAKEE.

MAINTAINING PROB40 CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TODAY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN TOWARD EVENING AS
MAIN STORM APPROACHES. DRY EAST OF I-55 AND SOUH OF I-72 UNTIL LATE
EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30
MPH. EVEN FOLLOWING WARMEST GUIDANCE PAST FEW DAYS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN
5 OR MORE DEGREES WARMER. SAME STORY TODAY AND WILL RAISE TEMPS A
CATEGORY EVERYWHERE WITH MID 60S NORTH AND LOWER 70S SE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SHY OF RECORDS IN THE UPPER 70S SET IN 2000.

1000 MB LOW IN CO DEEPENS TO 992 MB OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KS BY 00Z/SAT
THEN LIFTS INTO NE WI BY 12Z/SAT WITH COLD FRONT MOVING EAST INTO
CENTRAL IL. CATAGORIAL POPS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. SPC PUSHED SLIGHT RISK A BIT FURTHER SW BUT STILL CLIPS
PARTS AREAS FROM KSPI SW ACROSS MO TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EAST KS...NW MO INTO SOUTHERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FAVORABLE STRONG WIND FIELD AND EVOLVES INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT RACES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL FROM 04Z-12Z. BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WEST OF THE MS RIVER LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEAKENING
WITH LESS INSTABLILITY AS NIGHT PROGRESSES. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS IF SQUALL LINE HOLDS TOGETHER
THIS FAR EAST. RAIN ENDS BY NOON SAT AS FRONT RACES EAST ACROSS
INDIANA. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT COLDER AIR ARRIVES AS
PCPN ENDS...LIMITING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LAYERED RH FIELDS SHOW
CLEARING FROM SW TO NE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

SPI EW 067/042 042/021 047 07386
PIA EW 063/040 040/020 043 07486
DEC EW 066/045 045/021 046 07387
CMI EW 065/047 047/021 044 07387
MTO EW 067/049 049/023 046 07287
LWV EW 071/053 053/025 049 07198

.ILX...NONE.

KH