Strong Wind in Georgia, September 26 to 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

CORRECTED PRELIM CCF NUMBERS.

ETA HAS COME MUCH CLOSER IN LINE WITH CONSISTENT AVN WITH REGARD TO
ISIDORE AND RESULTING WEATHER. TRACK REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN STILL NOT LIKELY. THAT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CYCLONE TRACK. BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN QUITE POSSIBLE GIVEN
CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING AND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO WINDS OVER THE MTNS WILL INCREASE
AS WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE APPROACHES. HOWEVER
STRONGEST WINDS ALSO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. ONLY A FEW CASES...AT LEAST
IN OUR AREA...OF VERY HIGH GRADIENT WINDS WITHOUT CAA OR STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. WILL INCREASE WIND WORDING IN MTNS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI. IF
COLD POOL OVER THE AREA ERODES...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS WILL
THREAT. THIS APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF CWFA GIVEN
CURRENT CONDITIONS. GOOD SHEAR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH WIND
FIELD MENTIONED ABOVE. STILL PRECIP WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS.

COLD POOL STILL HOLDING IN PLACE AS WEDGE FRONT STRENGTHENS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. SOME SLOW EROSION LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
ALREADY SLOWLY WARMING FROM CLT METRO AREA TO GREENWOOD. WILL WORD
TONIGHTS TEMPS AS STEADY. WENT TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FRI...BUT
COOLER TOWARD THE MTNS WHERE COLD POOL WILL BE LAST TO SCOUR...IF AT
ALL.

DAYS 4-7...A COOL WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A QUICK WARMUP EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS GFS ADVERTISES RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE COUNTRY. PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING/DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF
UPPER HIGH WILL PRECLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIP UNTIL AT LEAST MID
WEEK...WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ONE
CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING A RETURN
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS T.S. LILI MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE GULF DURING MID-WEEK...AT LEAST THATS THE GFS STORY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

FCSTID =   81
GSP   63  78  67  81 /  90  50  30  10
AND   66  79  67  81 /  90  50  30  10
CLT   67  81  67  82 /  80  50  30  10
HKY   62  77  65  81 /  90  50  30  10
AVL   61  74  61  76 / 100  70  30  10

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RWH/RB